NBA games

POR @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
106–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR26293120106
GS22263428110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home GS
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 37 28 1 4
Shaedon Sharpe S 42 26 6 5
Jabari Walker 22 12 5 1
Duop Reath S 22 10 6 2
Matisse Thybulle 31 9 1 1
Scoot Henderson 26 9 2 4
Toumani Camara S 27 6 13 2
Kris Murray 21 6 5 1
Malcolm Brogdon S 13 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 34 31 5 1
Dario Saric 20 13 6 0
Jonathan Kuminga 17 13 1 1
Moses Moody 26 12 4 0
Klay Thompson S 27 11 5 1
Draymond Green S 31 10 10 9
Andrew Wiggins S 27 9 3 1
Kevon Looney S 16 6 8 0
Brandin Podziemski 21 3 5 1
Chris Paul 20 2 3 6

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Duop Reath · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Duop Reath makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Malcolm Brogdon POR
12%
2 Andrew Wiggins GS
12%
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR
12%
4 Dario Saric GS
10%
5 Stephen Curry GS
10%
6 Klay Thompson GS
9%
7 Anfernee Simons POR
9%
8 Toumani Camara POR
9%
9 Draymond Green GS
8%
10 Moses Moody GS
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
36%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 26.8 5.1 5.4
2 Malcolm Brogdon POR 19.6 4.3 7.4
3 Anfernee Simons POR 18.3 2.4 3.1
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR 18.3 5.9 4.1
5 Klay Thompson GS 15.8 4.1 2.9
6 Andrew Wiggins GS 15.0 4.9 1.8
7 Dario Saric GS 13.4 4.8 3.2
8 Draymond Green GS 12.2 5.6 4.9
9 Scoot Henderson POR 10.5 3.0 4.3
10 Chris Paul GS 9.8 2.9 5.7
11 Skylar Mays POR 9.5 2.4 5.1
12 Jonathan Kuminga GS 9.0 3.1 1.3
13 Moses Moody GS 8.8 3.6 1.1
14 Brandin Podziemski GS 8.8 4.3 2.2
15 Jabari Walker POR 8.5 5.6 1.0
16 Toumani Camara POR 7.9 3.3 1.1
17 Matisse Thybulle POR 6.7 2.4 1.4
18 Kevon Looney GS 6.5 7.5 2.0
19 Duop Reath POR 5.4 1.6 0.9
20 Gary Payton II GS 4.4 2.8 0.7
21 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 2.7 1.9 0.4
22 Moses Brown POR 2.5 2.5 0.3
23 Cory Joseph GS 2.4 0.9 1.5
24 Kris Murray POR 2.1 0.8 0.4
25 Rayan Rupert POR 1.6 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.