NBA games

UTAH @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
97–147
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH2922232397
DAL40343538147

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home DAL
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ochai Agbaji S 30 21 0 0
Talen Horton-Tucker 16 11 2 1
Taylor Hendricks 25 10 2 0
John Collins S 23 10 8 0
Omer Yurtseven S 21 8 9 0
Kris Dunn 17 8 4 2
Collin Sexton 18 7 3 5
Keyonte George S 32 7 4 11
Simone Fontecchio S 24 7 2 3
Walker Kessler 27 6 8 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 32 40 10 11
Kyrie Irving S 27 26 3 4
Tim Hardaway Jr. 22 17 4 2
Derrick Jones Jr. S 25 12 4 1
Dereck Lively II S 24 10 4 1
Seth Curry 19 10 2 2
Jaden Hardy 8 8 3 4
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 21 6 5 2
Dante Exum S 26 5 6 7
A.J. Lawson 7 4 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luka Doncic · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Luka Doncic makes 26-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic DAL
15%
2 John Collins UTAH
11%
3 Kyrie Irving DAL
11%
4 Keyonte George UTAH
10%
5 Dereck Lively II DAL
9%
6 Kris Dunn UTAH
8%
7 Omer Yurtseven UTAH
7%
8 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
7%
9 Seth Curry DAL
7%
10 Ochai Agbaji UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
33%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
45%
Jumper
8%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 30.4 7.4 9.2
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 24.6 4.4 4.7
3 Keyonte George UTAH 15.6 4.0 5.4
4 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 14.6 3.0 1.8
5 John Collins UTAH 14.5 8.9 1.5
6 Collin Sexton UTAH 13.9 3.6 4.1
7 Walker Kessler UTAH 10.9 9.0 1.2
8 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 10.2 3.8 1.4
9 Dereck Lively II DAL 10.0 8.1 1.4
10 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 9.2 3.2 1.9
11 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 8.9 2.9 3.7
12 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 8.4 5.5 3.9
13 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 7.8 3.3 1.4
14 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 5.2 5.3 1.1
15 Seth Curry DAL 4.9 1.7 1.0
16 Dante Exum DAL 4.8 2.2 1.7
17 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.6 1.5 1.2
18 A.J. Lawson DAL 4.3 1.9 0.6
19 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 3.7 2.1 0.6
20 Dwight Powell DAL 3.4 2.5 1.3
21 Luka Samanic UTAH 3.3 1.9 0.7
22 Richaun Holmes DAL 3.1 3.5 0.6
23 Kris Dunn UTAH 3.0 1.5 1.5
24 Markieff Morris DAL 2.9 0.8 0.6
25 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 2.8 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.