NBA games

OKC @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
101–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC22282427101
HOU32232530110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home HOU
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 37 33 3 6
Jalen Williams S 33 13 5 3
Aaron Wiggins 15 11 1 0
Tre Mann 24 10 3 4
Josh Giddey S 25 8 4 6
Kenrich Williams 15 8 2 1
Cason Wallace 25 5 3 0
Luguentz Dort S 15 4 3 0
Chet Holmgren S 26 4 5 2
Isaiah Joe 14 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dillon Brooks S 40 23 4 2
Aaron Holiday 27 22 6 4
Alperen Sengun S 35 21 6 7
Jalen Green S 25 15 7 1
Fred VanVleet S 38 11 3 9
Tari Eason 22 9 8 4
Jabari Smith Jr. S 32 6 18 1
Reggie Bullock Jr. 6 3 0 0
Jae'Sean Tate 15 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luguentz Dort · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:56 Q1
"Luguentz Dort makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Green HOU
13%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
4 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
6 Dillon Brooks HOU
9%
7 Fred VanVleet HOU
9%
8 Josh Giddey OKC
8%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
10 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
33%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.4 5.1 6.5
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 24.0 10.4 4.9
3 Jalen Green HOU 19.7 4.9 4.0
4 Jalen Williams OKC 18.6 4.2 3.5
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 18.5 8.1 2.9
6 Fred VanVleet HOU 16.6 4.4 8.4
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 13.4 8.2 1.7
8 Josh Giddey OKC 12.8 5.9 3.6
9 Dillon Brooks HOU 12.2 2.9 1.8
10 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.8 3.0 1.3
11 Luguentz Dort OKC 7.5 3.6 1.3
12 Aaron Holiday HOU 6.8 2.0 2.2
13 Tari Eason HOU 6.3 5.6 1.0
14 Cason Wallace OKC 6.0 2.4 1.1
15 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 5.4 3.4 1.2
16 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.2 2.4 1.6
17 Davis Bertans OKC 4.5 1.2 0.7
18 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.4 3.2 1.2
19 Aaron Wiggins OKC 4.3 2.2 0.9
20 Tre Mann OKC 3.9 1.9 1.1
21 Nate Williams HOU 3.9 1.3 0.4
22 Vasilije Micic OKC 3.2 0.8 2.7
23 Olivier Sarr OKC 2.7 2.7 0.4
24 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.1 2.1 0.6
25 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 1.8 1.2 0.5
26 Aleksej Pokusevski OKC 1.6 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.