NBA games

CHA @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
100–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA24202036100
CHI27213528111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home CHI
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gordon Hayward S 35 27 4 4
Terry Rozier S 40 25 5 7
Miles Bridges S 40 16 8 2
Brandon Miller S 39 12 6 4
P.J. Washington 29 9 6 4
Nick Richards S 28 6 11 0
Bryce McGowens 16 5 1 1
Ish Smith 14 0 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 37 29 6 3
Nikola Vucevic S 34 20 12 3
Coby White S 38 19 9 5
Alex Caruso S 30 12 6 2
Patrick Williams S 29 8 9 1
Ayo Dosunmu 22 8 2 2
Andre Drummond 14 7 9 1
Torrey Craig 17 6 4 2
Julian Phillips 6 2 0 1
Jevon Carter 11 0 0 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Vucevic · Layup (2 pts) · 10:59 Q1
"Nikola Vucevic makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Terry Rozier CHA
14%
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI
13%
3 Brandon Miller CHA
12%
4 Gordon Hayward CHA
12%
5 DeMar DeRozan CHI
11%
6 Miles Bridges CHA
11%
7 Coby White CHI
9%
8 Patrick Williams CHI
9%
9 Alex Caruso CHI
8%
10 P.J. Washington CHA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
35%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI 23.4 4.1 5.3
2 Terry Rozier CHA 22.9 4.1 6.2
3 Miles Bridges CHA 21.5 6.6 3.2
4 Coby White CHI 18.1 3.8 4.5
5 Brandon Miller CHA 15.4 4.1 2.5
6 Nikola Vucevic CHI 15.1 9.4 3.7
7 P.J. Washington CHA 12.5 5.5 2.7
8 Gordon Hayward CHA 12.4 4.5 3.9
9 Alex Caruso CHI 12.0 3.5 2.5
10 Patrick Williams CHI 11.1 4.8 1.4
11 Nick Richards CHA 7.4 6.1 0.6
12 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 6.7 1.9 2.0
13 Torrey Craig CHI 5.9 3.6 1.0
14 Bryce McGowens CHA 5.0 1.7 0.8
15 Ish Smith CHA 4.7 1.9 2.3
16 Andre Drummond CHI 4.7 7.2 0.6
17 Jevon Carter CHI 3.8 1.2 0.9
18 JT Thor CHA 3.7 2.0 0.5
19 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 3.7 1.1 0.5
20 Theo Maledon CHA 3.5 1.2 1.7
21 Terry Taylor CHI 2.4 1.8 0.5
22 Dalen Terry CHI 2.3 1.9 0.8
23 Julian Phillips CHI 1.7 1.0 0.5
24 Leaky Black CHA 1.4 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.