NBA games

SA @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
94–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA2231182394
MIN25212531102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home MIN
9% 91%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Vassell S 31 22 3 2
Keldon Johnson S 32 21 10 3
Zach Collins S 28 12 8 4
Victor Wembanyama S 32 12 10 1
Doug McDermott 22 11 3 2
Cedi Osman S 32 6 8 6
Jeremy Sochan 22 6 2 0
Tre Jones 26 4 2 5
Julian Champagnie 4 0 1 0
Malaki Branham 10 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mike Conley S 33 18 4 4
Anthony Edwards S 37 17 7 6
Rudy Gobert S 30 16 20 2
Naz Reid 29 15 9 2
Karl-Anthony Towns S 32 14 10 2
Troy Brown Jr. 25 8 1 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 20 7 2 0
Kyle Anderson 22 7 1 2
Shake Milton 12 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · Layup (2 pts) · 10:28 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Victor Wembanyama SA
13%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
13%
3 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
10%
5 Zach Collins SA
9%
6 Keldon Johnson SA
9%
7 Mike Conley MIN
7%
8 Jeremy Sochan SA
7%
9 Troy Brown Jr. MIN
6%
10 Malaki Branham SA
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
22%
Layup
46%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 26.1 5.5 5.4
2 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 25.5 8.7 4.5
3 Victor Wembanyama SA 20.8 10.9 3.4
4 Keldon Johnson SA 18.2 6.8 3.6
5 Devin Vassell SA 16.8 3.2 2.9
6 Zach Collins SA 15.4 5.8 3.5
7 Rudy Gobert MIN 15.1 11.3 1.4
8 Jeremy Sochan SA 14.2 5.2 4.0
9 Mike Conley MIN 10.9 2.6 6.9
10 Naz Reid MIN 10.9 3.9 1.1
11 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.9 2.6 2.5
12 Malaki Branham SA 8.1 1.6 2.1
13 Kyle Anderson MIN 7.9 3.9 3.5
14 Tre Jones SA 7.1 2.4 4.0
15 Cedi Osman SA 6.9 2.0 1.1
16 Julian Champagnie SA 6.5 2.3 1.2
17 Shake Milton MIN 5.5 2.1 1.6
18 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 5.4 2.6 0.9
19 Doug McDermott SA 4.3 1.0 1.4
20 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 3.5 1.1 1.4
21 Daishen Nix MIN 3.2 0.9 1.1
22 Devonte' Graham SA 3.1 0.9 1.3
23 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 2.8 1.2 0.7
24 Charles Bassey SA 2.5 4.1 0.7
25 Josh Minott MIN 2.0 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.