NBA games

BKN @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
114–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN31222833114
ATL33232631113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home ATL
72% 28%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mikal Bridges S 35 32 5 6
Cameron Johnson S 30 17 6 3
Dorian Finney-Smith 30 15 5 0
Dennis Smith Jr. 22 13 3 4
Spencer Dinwiddie S 28 13 2 4
Day'Ron Sharpe 19 8 10 0
Royce O'Neale 21 6 3 2
Cam Thomas S 27 6 1 1
Nic Claxton S 28 4 10 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 37 30 1 9
Saddiq Bey S 37 21 7 1
Bogdan Bogdanovic 27 20 4 1
De'Andre Hunter S 36 14 4 2
Dejounte Murray S 32 13 10 9
Clint Capela S 29 9 12 1
Wesley Matthews 11 4 1 0
Onyeka Okongwu 24 2 9 2
Garrison Mathews 7 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
De'Andre Hunter · Layup (2 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"De'Andre Hunter makes layup (Trae Young assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cam Thomas BKN
10%
2 Dejounte Murray ATL
10%
3 Mikal Bridges BKN
10%
4 De'Andre Hunter ATL
10%
5 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN
9%
6 Saddiq Bey ATL
9%
7 Clint Capela ATL
9%
8 Cameron Johnson BKN
9%
9 Trae Young ATL
9%
10 Nic Claxton BKN
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
49%
Jumper
24%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 27.3 3.1 10.5
2 Mikal Bridges BKN 26.2 6.8 5.0
3 Cam Thomas BKN 24.3 4.6 2.8
4 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN 20.0 4.9 7.7
5 Dejounte Murray ATL 19.9 4.0 5.2
6 Cameron Johnson BKN 17.4 5.8 3.4
7 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 16.2 3.8 2.3
8 De'Andre Hunter ATL 15.1 4.1 1.8
9 Saddiq Bey ATL 13.5 5.6 1.8
10 Nic Claxton BKN 13.0 10.0 1.6
11 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 11.9 3.2 1.8
12 Clint Capela ATL 11.2 10.1 1.3
13 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 9.7 4.7 1.4
14 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 8.9 6.0 1.5
15 Royce O'Neale BKN 8.8 4.4 3.3
16 Harry Giles III BKN 6.2 3.1 0.5
17 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 6.1 3.1 3.8
18 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 5.9 7.6 1.1
19 Trendon Watford BKN 5.8 3.6 1.4
20 Garrison Mathews ATL 3.0 1.1 0.6
21 Trent Forrest ATL 3.0 0.9 1.7
22 Wesley Matthews ATL 2.8 1.1 0.8
23 Bruno Fernando ATL 2.8 2.2 0.7
24 AJ Griffin ATL 2.3 0.8 0.4
25 Patty Mills ATL 1.6 0.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.