NBA games

PHI @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
131–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI25353932131
WSH29333331126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home WSH
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 38 50 13 7
Tyrese Maxey S 38 26 1 7
De'Anthony Melton S 27 19 5 4
Kelly Oubre Jr. 19 12 3 1
Nicolas Batum S 33 9 6 5
Tobias Harris S 35 6 6 1
Patrick Beverley 21 5 4 4
Marcus Morris Sr. 15 4 3 0
Robert Covington 4 0 1 0
Paul Reed 10 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 32 23 1 2
Tyus Jones S 31 20 3 8
Daniel Gafford S 23 18 6 4
Kyle Kuzma S 34 16 3 7
Corey Kispert 25 16 3 1
Bilal Coulibaly 28 14 1 3
Deni Avdija S 31 8 8 8
Danilo Gallinari 17 7 6 2
Mike Muscala 6 4 0 0
Jared Butler 14 0 1 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Joel Embiid · Layup (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Joel Embiid makes layup (Nicolas Batum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Joel Embiid PHI
12%
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH
10%
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI
9%
4 Tobias Harris PHI
9%
5 Jordan Poole WSH
9%
6 Daniel Gafford WSH
7%
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
7%
8 De'Anthony Melton PHI
6%
9 Deni Avdija WSH
6%
10 Paul Reed PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
58%
Jumper
12%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 35.4 12.3 7.0
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 27.1 4.2 6.2
3 Kyle Kuzma WSH 25.3 5.6 6.5
4 Jordan Poole WSH 20.0 3.9 4.1
5 De'Anthony Melton PHI 18.2 4.6 3.7
6 Tobias Harris PHI 17.5 5.7 3.1
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 15.3 4.1 1.5
8 Deni Avdija WSH 13.0 4.6 3.5
9 Tyus Jones WSH 12.8 3.3 4.7
10 Daniel Gafford WSH 12.1 8.4 1.7
11 Corey Kispert WSH 10.8 2.6 1.7
12 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 10.5 4.1 1.8
13 Nicolas Batum PHI 7.8 3.9 1.4
14 Robert Covington PHI 7.2 5.0 1.2
15 Danilo Gallinari WSH 6.9 3.1 1.4
16 Patrick Beverley PHI 6.7 2.8 2.4
17 Paul Reed PHI 5.6 3.9 1.1
18 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI 5.0 2.3 0.7
19 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 3.9 1.5 0.7
20 Mike Muscala WSH 3.8 2.3 0.9
21 Danuel House Jr. PHI 3.7 1.2 0.7
22 Mo Bamba PHI 3.4 2.4 0.5
23 Jaden Springer PHI 3.3 1.8 0.8
24 Jared Butler WSH 2.8 0.9 1.4
25 KJ Martin PHI 2.5 1.2 0.5
26 Anthony Gill WSH 2.3 1.2 0.4
27 Furkan Korkmaz PHI 2.0 0.7 0.5
28 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 1.4 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.