NBA games

MIA @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
112–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA37272325112
TOR32341819103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home TOR
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Caleb Martin S 31 24 12 3
Duncan Robinson S 32 21 6 7
Jimmy Butler III S 35 19 2 8
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 32 15 0 2
Orlando Robinson S 33 15 12 4
Kevin Love 15 8 2 4
Josh Richardson 30 7 4 2
Kyle Lowry S 28 3 4 3
Nikola Jovic 3 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 36 30 4 6
OG Anunoby S 39 23 8 6
Gary Trent Jr. 25 15 2 2
Scottie Barnes S 34 12 11 5
Dennis Schroder S 35 9 5 5
Precious Achiuwa 13 9 3 2
Malachi Flynn 6 3 1 1
Jakob Poeltl S 28 2 6 1
Otto Porter Jr. 14 0 2 1
Chris Boucher 10 0 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Scottie Barnes · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Scottie Barnes makes 6-foot two point shot (Jakob Poeltl assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam TOR
15%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
12%
3 Dennis Schroder TOR
11%
4 OG Anunoby TOR
11%
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
6 Jimmy Butler III MIA
10%
7 Orlando Robinson MIA
9%
8 Duncan Robinson MIA
9%
9 Kyle Lowry MIA
7%
10 Haywood Highsmith MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
27%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jimmy Butler III MIA 24.6 4.8 4.6
2 Pascal Siakam TOR 22.8 7.1 5.4
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 20.0 7.9 5.4
4 Duncan Robinson MIA 17.6 3.4 3.4
5 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 17.2 4.5 3.1
6 Dennis Schroder TOR 17.0 3.5 6.0
7 Josh Richardson MIA 13.6 3.4 3.7
8 OG Anunoby TOR 13.5 4.2 2.4
9 Jakob Poeltl TOR 13.0 8.9 2.6
10 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 10.8 2.0 1.4
11 Kyle Lowry MIA 10.5 3.6 3.2
12 Caleb Martin MIA 10.1 3.1 1.8
13 Kevin Love MIA 7.5 5.6 2.3
14 Precious Achiuwa TOR 6.8 5.0 1.5
15 Jamal Cain MIA 6.5 4.0 0.9
16 Orlando Robinson MIA 6.4 3.8 1.6
17 Haywood Highsmith MIA 5.9 2.9 1.6
18 Chris Boucher TOR 5.4 2.6 0.5
19 Malachi Flynn TOR 5.3 2.1 1.7
20 Nikola Jovic MIA 4.9 3.6 1.7
21 Thomas Bryant MIA 4.2 3.1 0.5
22 Otto Porter Jr. TOR 2.8 1.9 0.4
23 Jalen McDaniels TOR 2.7 1.1 0.5
24 Thaddeus Young TOR 2.3 1.5 0.7
25 Garrett Temple TOR 1.7 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.