NBA games

MEM @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
116–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM31213034116
DET29272818102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home DET
73% 27%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 36 49 6 8
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 35 24 4 0
Jaylen Nowell 26 12 2 4
John Konchar 22 9 7 2
Santi Aldama 26 7 3 3
David Roddy S 22 4 6 1
Derrick Rose S 15 4 1 2
Vince Williams Jr. 25 3 4 1
Xavier Tillman 7 2 1 1
Bismack Biyombo S 26 2 11 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bojan Bogdanovic S 32 22 4 7
Jalen Duren S 30 17 11 0
Cade Cunningham S 34 16 4 10
Killian Hayes S 27 12 4 4
Jaden Ivey 24 9 3 2
Isaiah Stewart S 28 9 7 1
Isaiah Livers 19 5 1 1
Ausar Thompson 16 5 4 0
James Wiseman 8 4 1 1
Alec Burks 17 3 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaren Jackson Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:23 Q1
"Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 7-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Desmond Bane MEM
14%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
11%
4 Jalen Duren DET
10%
5 Jaylen Nowell MEM
8%
6 Derrick Rose MEM
8%
7 Jaden Ivey DET
8%
8 Isaiah Stewart DET
7%
9 David Roddy MEM
7%
10 Killian Hayes DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
34%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Desmond Bane MEM 23.7 4.2 6.4
2 Cade Cunningham DET 22.5 4.2 7.4
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 18.5 6.1 2.0
4 Santi Aldama MEM 16.9 6.4 2.5
5 Jaden Ivey DET 12.0 3.1 3.3
6 Jalen Duren DET 11.5 10.0 2.2
7 Isaiah Stewart DET 10.8 6.4 1.3
8 Ausar Thompson DET 10.2 8.3 1.5
9 David Roddy MEM 10.0 4.3 1.5
10 Killian Hayes DET 9.4 3.1 3.5
11 Derrick Rose MEM 9.2 2.2 3.0
12 Xavier Tillman MEM 9.1 5.8 2.0
13 Bismack Biyombo MEM 8.1 6.2 2.2
14 Marvin Bagley III DET 7.6 4.9 1.0
15 Kevin Knox II DET 7.6 2.7 0.8
16 Isaiah Livers DET 7.3 2.1 1.4
17 Alec Burks DET 7.2 1.7 1.7
18 Ziaire Williams MEM 6.8 2.5 1.3
19 Jacob Gilyard MEM 5.5 1.5 2.8
20 Marcus Sasser DET 5.3 1.1 2.4
21 Jaylen Nowell MEM 5.2 1.6 1.1
22 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 5.1 3.4 1.2
23 John Konchar MEM 4.1 2.9 1.4
24 James Wiseman DET 3.3 2.6 0.4
25 Kenneth Lofton Jr. MEM 2.4 1.3 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.