NBA games

ORL @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
111–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL20323425111
CLE37283422121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home CLE
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 38 42 6 1
Cole Anthony 32 19 7 2
Franz Wagner S 41 14 6 9
Anthony Black S 15 11 0 0
Moritz Wagner 21 11 4 0
Gary Harris 31 8 3 3
Goga Bitadze S 25 6 3 3
Joe Ingles 17 0 4 3
Jalen Suggs S 9 0 0 1
Caleb Houstan 11 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 37 35 7 6
Darius Garland S 40 26 3 9
Max Strus S 31 17 5 6
Evan Mobley S 37 16 5 2
Georges Niang 28 10 5 3
Dean Wade 14 8 5 0
Jarrett Allen S 19 8 11 2
Tristan Thompson 6 1 3 0
Isaac Okoro 29 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Mitchell · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Donovan Mitchell makes 16-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
15%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
12%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
4 Darius Garland CLE
10%
5 Franz Wagner ORL
9%
6 Paolo Banchero ORL
8%
7 Goga Bitadze ORL
8%
8 Jalen Suggs ORL
7%
9 Max Strus CLE
7%
10 Anthony Black ORL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
54%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 24.7 5.2 5.4
2 Franz Wagner ORL 23.2 5.8 3.6
3 Darius Garland CLE 22.8 3.4 6.0
4 Paolo Banchero ORL 22.5 6.9 4.8
5 Cole Anthony ORL 19.0 5.1 4.7
6 Evan Mobley CLE 16.9 10.5 3.0
7 Jarrett Allen CLE 15.4 8.4 2.6
8 Max Strus CLE 15.3 4.7 4.6
9 Jalen Suggs ORL 13.6 3.3 2.9
10 Moritz Wagner ORL 12.4 4.2 1.5
11 Georges Niang CLE 9.4 3.7 1.3
12 Gary Harris ORL 7.1 1.7 1.6
13 Goga Bitadze ORL 6.9 6.8 1.7
14 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 6.9 1.8 2.2
15 Isaac Okoro CLE 6.5 3.2 1.3
16 Joe Ingles ORL 6.0 2.3 3.1
17 Anthony Black ORL 4.5 2.4 1.2
18 Dean Wade CLE 3.2 2.8 0.7
19 Caleb Houstan ORL 2.5 1.1 0.4
20 Sam Merrill CLE 2.5 0.8 0.5
21 Tristan Thompson CLE 1.9 1.7 0.6
22 Chuma Okeke ORL 1.8 0.8 0.5
23 Admiral Schofield ORL 1.7 1.4 0.5
24 Damian Jones CLE 1.1 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.