NBA games

IND @ LAL

NBA T-Mobile Arena ·Final
109–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND29312227109
LAL34312533123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home LAL
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 35 20 1 11
Bennedict Mathurin 30 20 2 0
Aaron Nesmith 26 15 3 1
Obi Toppin S 29 13 2 0
Myles Turner S 25 10 7 1
Isaiah Jackson 19 10 5 0
Buddy Hield S 32 8 5 4
T.J. McConnell 18 8 4 9
Bruce Brown S 19 4 2 1
Oscar Tshiebwe 1 1 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 41 41 20 5
Austin Reaves 28 28 2 3
LeBron James S 35 24 11 4
D'Angelo Russell S 32 13 4 7
Cam Reddish S 33 9 3 1
Taurean Prince S 19 6 3 2
Max Christie 19 2 2 1
Jaxson Hayes 7 0 4 1
Jalen Hood-Schifino 1 0 0 0
Rui Hachimura 9 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Buddy Hield · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Buddy Hield makes 23-foot three point shot (Tyrese Haliburton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
14%
2 Myles Turner IND
12%
3 D'Angelo Russell LAL
11%
4 Obi Toppin IND
10%
5 LeBron James LAL
10%
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND
10%
7 Bruce Brown IND
10%
8 Buddy Hield IND
8%
9 Cam Reddish LAL
8%
10 Taurean Prince LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
21%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
19%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 26.8 6.6 6.9
2 Tyrese Haliburton IND 26.4 4.0 11.7
3 Anthony Davis LAL 25.2 14.2 3.7
4 Austin Reaves LAL 18.2 4.6 4.8
5 D'Angelo Russell LAL 16.2 3.6 5.8
6 Obi Toppin IND 15.4 4.0 2.3
7 Myles Turner IND 15.4 8.2 1.5
8 Bruce Brown IND 14.5 4.1 2.9
9 Buddy Hield IND 12.8 3.5 2.6
10 Bennedict Mathurin IND 12.2 3.5 1.7
11 Rui Hachimura LAL 11.7 3.4 1.5
12 Taurean Prince LAL 9.6 3.2 1.8
13 Cam Reddish LAL 9.6 3.1 1.6
14 Aaron Nesmith IND 9.3 2.9 1.3
15 Christian Wood LAL 7.3 5.5 1.2
16 Max Christie LAL 7.1 2.9 1.3
17 T.J. McConnell IND 7.0 2.5 4.3
18 Isaiah Jackson IND 4.9 4.5 0.8
19 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 4.7 2.4 2.1
20 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.5 5.0 1.2
21 Jarace Walker IND 4.2 2.6 1.2
22 Jaxson Hayes LAL 4.1 2.7 0.6
23 Jordan Nwora IND 3.7 1.6 0.7
24 Ben Sheppard IND 2.8 0.8 0.5
25 Isaiah Wong IND 2.6 1.1 1.2
26 Maxwell Lewis LAL 2.6 1.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.