NBA games

IND @ MIL

NBA T-Mobile Arena ·Final
128–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND27362837128
MIL29224325119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home MIL
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 37 27 7 15
Myles Turner S 32 26 10 2
Obi Toppin S 21 14 6 2
Isaiah Jackson 16 11 6 0
Bruce Brown S 28 10 3 1
T.J. McConnell 11 9 1 4
Bennedict Mathurin 24 9 6 1
Buddy Hield S 30 8 11 2
Andrew Nembhard 14 8 0 2
Aaron Nesmith 27 6 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 41 37 10 2
Damian Lillard S 42 24 7 7
Khris Middleton S 30 20 7 4
Brook Lopez S 37 18 6 2
Malik Beasley S 36 7 3 1
MarJon Beauchamp 15 5 6 0
Bobby Portis 18 4 6 1
Cameron Payne 16 4 1 2
AJ Green 4 0 0 0
Andre Jackson Jr. 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Obi Toppin · Layup (2 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Obi Toppin makes alley oop layup (Myles Turner assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brook Lopez MIL
12%
2 Myles Turner IND
12%
3 Obi Toppin IND
11%
4 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
11%
5 Bruce Brown IND
10%
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND
10%
7 Khris Middleton MIL
9%
8 Damian Lillard MIL
9%
9 Buddy Hield IND
8%
10 Malik Beasley MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
26%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 36.8 12.1 6.9
2 Tyrese Haliburton IND 28.2 4.2 11.7
3 Damian Lillard MIL 28.0 4.6 7.8
4 Brook Lopez MIL 17.3 6.0 2.2
5 Myles Turner IND 16.2 7.5 1.5
6 Obi Toppin IND 15.9 3.7 2.2
7 Bruce Brown IND 15.0 4.4 3.1
8 Buddy Hield IND 14.4 3.1 2.6
9 Khris Middleton MIL 13.9 4.9 4.1
10 Malik Beasley MIL 13.2 5.2 1.8
11 Bennedict Mathurin IND 12.6 3.4 1.7
12 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.2 3.0 1.4
13 Bobby Portis MIL 10.8 6.9 1.3
14 Cameron Payne MIL 7.0 2.1 2.4
15 Andrew Nembhard IND 6.7 2.0 4.5
16 T.J. McConnell IND 6.2 2.4 3.8
17 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 5.2 2.7 1.1
18 Jarace Walker IND 4.6 2.7 1.3
19 Jordan Nwora IND 4.2 1.6 0.7
20 Isaiah Jackson IND 4.0 3.9 0.6
21 AJ Green MIL 3.9 1.4 0.8
22 Chris Livingston MIL 3.9 1.4 0.6
23 TyTy Washington Jr. MIL 3.5 1.0 1.5
24 Ben Sheppard IND 3.3 1.0 0.6
25 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 3.2 1.8 0.7
26 Robin Lopez MIL 2.9 2.2 0.9
27 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.7 1.2 0.6
28 Lindell Wigginton MIL 2.5 1.5 1.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.