NBA games

NO @ LAL

NBA T-Mobile Arena ·Final
89–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO3024171889
LAL29384323133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home LAL
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III 22 14 3 1
Zion Williamson S 26 13 2 3
Herbert Jones S 26 10 7 1
Brandon Ingram S 31 9 3 7
Jonas Valanciunas S 23 9 3 2
CJ McCollum S 25 9 4 2
Jose Alvarado 20 8 2 4
Naji Marshall 12 5 4 0
Jordan Hawkins 12 4 2 0
Dyson Daniels 17 4 8 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 23 30 5 8
Austin Reaves 23 17 5 7
Anthony Davis S 31 16 15 5
Taurean Prince S 23 15 3 1
D'Angelo Russell S 22 14 3 1
Rui Hachimura 21 12 1 2
Cam Reddish S 23 9 5 2
Max Christie 17 6 2 0
Christian Wood 8 4 6 2
Jaxson Hayes 17 4 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
LeBron James · Layup (2 pts) · 11:49 Q1
"LeBron James makes layup (Anthony Davis assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
13%
2 Anthony Davis LAL
12%
3 Jonas Valanciunas NO
11%
4 LeBron James LAL
11%
5 D'Angelo Russell LAL
10%
6 CJ McCollum NO
9%
7 Brandon Ingram NO
9%
8 Herbert Jones NO
9%
9 Cam Reddish LAL
7%
10 Taurean Prince LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
33%
Jumper
23%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 25.2 6.2 7.2
2 Brandon Ingram NO 24.7 5.1 5.6
3 Zion Williamson NO 24.4 5.6 6.1
4 Anthony Davis LAL 23.0 12.6 3.4
5 CJ McCollum NO 20.2 4.5 6.1
6 Jonas Valanciunas NO 16.1 9.9 2.5
7 Austin Reaves LAL 16.1 4.1 4.6
8 D'Angelo Russell LAL 15.7 3.4 6.2
9 Herbert Jones NO 15.1 4.8 3.7
10 Rui Hachimura LAL 12.5 3.9 1.7
11 Jordan Hawkins NO 10.7 3.2 1.7
12 Cam Reddish LAL 9.7 2.9 1.5
13 Taurean Prince LAL 9.5 3.0 2.0
14 Naji Marshall NO 8.7 4.6 2.1
15 Dyson Daniels NO 7.0 3.7 2.6
16 Jose Alvarado NO 6.5 2.3 1.8
17 Max Christie LAL 6.4 2.6 1.4
18 Christian Wood LAL 6.2 4.4 0.9
19 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.6 4.8 1.4
20 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 4.0 2.5 0.9
21 Jaxson Hayes LAL 3.8 2.2 0.6
22 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 3.5 1.6 1.9
23 Cody Zeller NO 3.4 3.3 0.9
24 Kira Lewis Jr. NO 2.5 0.8 1.2
25 Maxwell Lewis LAL 1.3 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.