NBA games

NO @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
127117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO35343127127
SAC36253026117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home SAC
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 40 30 8 6
Herbert Jones S 35 23 5 5
Jonas Valanciunas S 29 18 11 0
CJ McCollum S 36 17 2 7
Trey Murphy III 30 16 2 1
Zion Williamson S 28 10 6 6
Jose Alvarado 18 9 3 2
Naji Marshall 13 4 4 2
Dyson Daniels 6 0 1 0
Cody Zeller 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 40 30 5 4
Domantas Sabonis S 36 26 13 10
Malik Monk 32 21 3 5
Keegan Murray S 31 14 4 1
Kevin Huerter S 32 12 5 2
Trey Lyles 16 5 1 6
Keon Ellis 8 5 0 0
Harrison Barnes S 34 4 4 1
Sasha Vezenkov 6 0 2 0
JaVale McGee 4 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kevin Huerter · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Kevin Huerter makes 26-foot three pointer (Domantas Sabonis assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC
16%
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC
12%
3 Zion Williamson NO
11%
4 Jonas Valanciunas NO
10%
5 Brandon Ingram NO
9%
6 CJ McCollum NO
8%
7 Harrison Barnes SAC
7%
8 Kevin Huerter SAC
7%
9 Herbert Jones NO
6%
10 Dyson Daniels NO
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
48%
Jumper
12%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 29.3 4.6 6.9
2 Zion Williamson NO 25.2 5.5 5.9
3 Brandon Ingram NO 25.1 4.8 6.1
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 22.0 10.6 6.8
5 CJ McCollum NO 19.7 4.6 6.0
6 Jonas Valanciunas NO 16.8 10.1 2.8
7 Kevin Huerter SAC 15.9 4.3 3.2
8 Malik Monk SAC 15.4 3.3 4.1
9 Herbert Jones NO 13.9 4.8 3.8
10 Keegan Murray SAC 12.2 5.3 2.0
11 Harrison Barnes SAC 12.1 3.4 2.1
12 Jordan Hawkins NO 11.5 3.4 2.0
13 Naji Marshall NO 9.7 4.7 2.3
14 Dyson Daniels NO 8.0 4.4 3.4
15 Trey Lyles SAC 7.5 3.9 1.0
16 Jose Alvarado NO 6.7 2.1 1.9
17 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 5.6 2.2 0.8
18 Davion Mitchell SAC 5.1 1.0 2.1
19 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 4.4 2.6 1.0
20 JaVale McGee SAC 4.4 3.9 0.8
21 Keon Ellis SAC 4.1 1.8 1.0
22 Colby Jones SAC 4.0 1.3 0.6
23 Cody Zeller NO 3.6 3.6 0.9
24 Kira Lewis Jr. NO 2.9 0.8 1.3
25 Jordan Ford SAC 2.2 0.6 0.4
26 Kessler Edwards SAC 2.1 1.2 0.5
27 Jalen Slawson SAC 1.5 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.