NBA games

BOS @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
112–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS24312334112
IND22263737122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home IND
15% 85%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 37 32 12 6
Jaylen Brown S 31 30 9 0
Derrick White S 36 18 4 8
Sam Hauser 23 15 6 1
Jrue Holiday S 38 9 6 3
Luke Kornet 17 6 4 2
Al Horford S 31 2 7 4
Dalano Banton 11 0 4 1
Payton Pritchard 15 0 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 40 26 10 13
Buddy Hield S 32 21 2 2
Myles Turner S 34 17 10 1
Bennedict Mathurin 27 16 5 2
Aaron Nesmith 31 14 1 1
Bruce Brown S 36 13 8 4
Obi Toppin S 26 12 2 1
T.J. McConnell 9 2 2 3
Andrew Nembhard 5 1 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bruce Brown · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Bruce Brown makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
16%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
12%
3 Myles Turner IND
11%
4 Obi Toppin IND
10%
5 Derrick White BOS
10%
6 Bruce Brown IND
9%
7 Jrue Holiday BOS
7%
8 Andrew Nembhard IND
7%
9 Al Horford BOS
6%
10 Buddy Hield IND
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
38%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 28.9 7.8 5.1
2 Tyrese Haliburton IND 25.9 3.9 10.9
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.6 4.9 4.0
4 Myles Turner IND 15.9 7.5 1.6
5 Obi Toppin IND 15.3 3.3 2.1
6 Derrick White BOS 14.7 3.9 5.5
7 Bruce Brown IND 14.0 4.5 3.3
8 Jrue Holiday BOS 13.8 6.9 5.0
9 Bennedict Mathurin IND 12.9 4.0 1.7
10 Buddy Hield IND 12.6 3.0 2.5
11 Al Horford BOS 10.5 6.6 2.8
12 Aaron Nesmith IND 10.5 2.9 1.3
13 Sam Hauser BOS 9.8 3.6 1.5
14 T.J. McConnell IND 8.1 2.8 3.7
15 Payton Pritchard BOS 7.8 2.8 2.0
16 Andrew Nembhard IND 7.1 2.1 4.3
17 Neemias Queta BOS 5.0 4.9 0.6
18 Isaiah Jackson IND 4.9 4.3 0.8
19 Luke Kornet BOS 4.6 4.1 0.6
20 Jarace Walker IND 4.1 2.6 1.2
21 Ben Sheppard IND 4.0 1.3 0.8
22 Jordan Nwora IND 3.8 1.5 0.7
23 Dalano Banton BOS 3.6 2.4 0.6
24 Lamar Stevens BOS 3.2 1.8 0.3
25 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 3.2 1.0 0.4
26 Oshae Brissett BOS 1.7 2.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.