NBA games

PHX @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
103–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX23243521103
LAL33262423106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home LAL
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 39 31 7 4
Grayson Allen S 39 21 2 2
Devin Booker S 37 21 11 6
Jordan Goodwin 15 7 6 1
Eric Gordon S 35 7 4 4
Drew Eubanks 18 6 2 1
Nassir Little 14 5 2 2
Jusuf Nurkic S 29 3 8 4
Keita Bates-Diop 6 2 1 1
Josh Okogie 9 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 40 31 8 11
Anthony Davis S 39 27 15 1
Austin Reaves 27 20 6 2
D'Angelo Russell S 24 8 1 5
Rui Hachimura 21 7 2 1
Taurean Prince S 27 5 3 0
Cam Reddish S 30 4 2 1
Max Christie 8 3 0 1
Jarred Vanderbilt 15 1 6 2
Jaxson Hayes 9 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
D'Angelo Russell · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"D'Angelo Russell makes 24-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
14%
2 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
11%
3 LeBron James LAL
10%
4 D'Angelo Russell LAL
10%
5 Devin Booker PHX
10%
6 Kevin Durant PHX
10%
7 Grayson Allen PHX
8%
8 Taurean Prince LAL
7%
9 Cam Reddish LAL
7%
10 Josh Okogie PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
40%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 30.1 5.9 6.7
2 Devin Booker PHX 27.7 6.1 8.5
3 LeBron James LAL 25.5 6.6 7.3
4 Anthony Davis LAL 23.1 12.5 3.2
5 D'Angelo Russell LAL 17.2 3.8 6.3
6 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 15.5 9.2 3.3
7 Eric Gordon PHX 15.4 2.8 3.1
8 Austin Reaves LAL 14.3 4.5 4.8
9 Rui Hachimura LAL 11.6 3.7 1.3
10 Grayson Allen PHX 11.4 4.3 2.7
11 Cam Reddish LAL 9.7 2.9 1.4
12 Taurean Prince LAL 9.1 3.0 1.8
13 Christian Wood LAL 6.9 4.6 1.0
14 Max Christie LAL 6.3 2.7 1.4
15 Drew Eubanks PHX 6.2 3.7 1.0
16 Josh Okogie PHX 6.2 3.6 1.2
17 Saben Lee PHX 5.8 1.6 2.0
18 Nassir Little PHX 5.6 2.7 0.9
19 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 5.3 3.0 0.9
20 Jordan Goodwin PHX 5.3 3.3 1.9
21 Yuta Watanabe PHX 5.0 2.1 0.9
22 Jaxson Hayes LAL 4.5 2.1 0.6
23 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 4.3 2.0 2.1
24 Chimezie Metu PHX 2.7 1.5 0.4
25 Bol Bol PHX 2.3 1.1 0.4
26 Maxwell Lewis LAL 2.2 1.0 0.5
27 Udoka Azubuike PHX 1.8 2.3 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.