NBA games

NY @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
122–146
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY35372426122
MIL37383734146

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home MIL
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 37 41 6 5
Jalen Brunson S 34 24 3 6
RJ Barrett S 31 23 8 1
Josh Hart 26 11 4 1
Donte DiVincenzo 17 7 1 2
Immanuel Quickley 19 7 1 3
Isaiah Hartenstein 18 4 7 5
Miles McBride 2 3 0 0
Mitchell Robinson S 27 2 4 3
Quentin Grimes S 18 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 34 35 8 10
Damian Lillard S 34 28 3 7
Malik Beasley S 33 18 3 0
Khris Middleton S 26 14 4 7
Bobby Portis 24 13 4 1
Cameron Payne 14 12 2 2
Brook Lopez S 34 9 8 3
AJ Green 15 9 0 1
MarJon Beauchamp 19 6 2 1
Thanasis Antetokounmpo 2 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Brunson · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:59 Q1
"Jalen Brunson makes 4-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brook Lopez MIL
13%
2 Damian Lillard MIL
12%
3 RJ Barrett NY
12%
4 Julius Randle NY
12%
5 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
10%
6 Khris Middleton MIL
9%
7 Jalen Brunson NY
9%
8 Mitchell Robinson NY
8%
9 Malik Beasley MIL
7%
10 Quentin Grimes NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
25%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 31.8 11.3 6.8
2 Damian Lillard MIL 27.1 4.7 8.7
3 Jalen Brunson NY 25.9 4.0 6.4
4 Julius Randle NY 24.9 10.1 6.4
5 RJ Barrett NY 18.7 4.1 3.2
6 Brook Lopez MIL 16.2 5.9 2.1
7 Immanuel Quickley NY 14.4 3.3 1.9
8 Malik Beasley MIL 13.6 5.0 1.8
9 Khris Middleton MIL 12.4 4.3 3.9
10 Josh Hart NY 10.8 5.7 2.4
11 Bobby Portis MIL 10.6 6.7 1.1
12 Donte DiVincenzo NY 8.3 2.6 1.7
13 Mitchell Robinson NY 6.8 9.1 0.9
14 Cameron Payne MIL 6.6 1.8 2.3
15 Quentin Grimes NY 5.7 1.3 1.3
16 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 4.8 2.6 1.2
17 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 4.2 4.9 0.6
18 AJ Green MIL 3.3 1.2 0.7
19 Chris Livingston MIL 2.8 0.6 0.3
20 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.6 1.0 0.6
21 Charlie Brown Jr. NY 2.5 1.0 0.6
22 Miles McBride NY 2.0 0.6 0.3
23 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.9 0.9 0.4
24 Lindell Wigginton MIL 1.8 1.2 1.5
25 Jericho Sims NY 1.6 1.8 0.4
26 Ryan Arcidiacono NY 1.5 0.7 0.3
27 Robin Lopez MIL 1.5 1.1 0.5
28 Marques Bolden MIL 1.3 2.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.