NBA games

SA @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
122–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA44282624122
GS35282826117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 4 (GS) / 4 (SA) games this season
SA away
home GS
78% 22%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 21 19 4 1
Zach Collins S 20 13 3 4
Devin Vassell S 22 13 3 3
Keldon Johnson S 22 12 7 2
Malaki Branham 18 11 1 3
Charles Bassey 12 11 1 2
Sandro Mamukelashvili 7 8 1 1
Cedi Osman 14 7 1 2
Jeremy Sochan S 26 7 11 6
Doug McDermott 14 5 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Moses Moody 17 18 8 0
Dario Saric 21 17 2 2
Jonathan Kuminga 21 13 6 5
Stephen Curry S 20 11 4 2
Klay Thompson S 18 9 3 0
Cory Joseph 20 9 2 5
Rodney McGruder 20 8 5 0
Kevon Looney S 19 7 5 1
Trayce Jackson-Davis 12 6 3 1
Gary Payton II 14 5 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zach Collins · Layup (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Zach Collins makes layup (Victor Wembanyama assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
2 Klay Thompson GS
12%
3 Zach Collins SA
11%
4 Jonathan Kuminga GS
9%
5 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
9%
6 Kevon Looney GS
8%
7 Devin Vassell SA
8%
8 Andrew Wiggins GS
8%
9 Jeremy Sochan SA
8%
10 Stephen Curry GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
40%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jonathan Kuminga GS 24.8 6.2 3.4
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 20.2 6.0 2.4
3 Zach Collins SA 17.5 7.4 5.4
4 Stephen Curry GS 17.2 3.9 3.9
5 Devin Vassell SA 15.5 2.9 2.2
6 Andrew Wiggins GS 12.3 3.2 1.6
7 Moses Moody GS 11.1 3.1 1.4
8 Brandin Podziemski GS 10.9 5.7 4.9
9 Jeremy Sochan SA 10.7 4.6 2.4
10 Tre Jones SA 10.3 2.8 4.7
11 Chris Paul GS 9.8 3.6 5.3
12 Malaki Branham SA 9.5 2.9 1.6
13 Dario Saric GS 9.1 3.9 2.2
14 Klay Thompson GS 8.9 3.8 1.6
15 Cedi Osman SA 8.6 3.9 1.9
16 Blake Wesley SA 6.4 2.6 3.2
17 Julian Champagnie SA 6.1 3.8 1.4
18 Charles Bassey SA 6.1 6.2 1.8
19 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 6.0 5.0 0.7
20 Doug McDermott SA 5.9 1.4 1.2
21 Lester Quinones GS 5.6 2.6 1.7
22 Gary Payton II GS 5.4 2.9 1.0
23 Dominick Barlow SA 5.0 2.3 0.9
24 Kevon Looney GS 4.7 6.7 1.3
25 Jerome Robinson GS 4.7 2.3 1.2
26 Devonte' Graham SA 4.4 1.8 0.7
27 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 4.1 1.4 0.7
28 Sidy Cissoko SA 2.5 1.5 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.