NBA games

MEM @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
116–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM23353622116
MIL29233339124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 4 (MIL) / 4 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home MIL
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 26 24 4 5
Ziaire Williams S 21 15 7 1
Santi Aldama 15 13 5 2
Marcus Smart S 24 11 1 6
David Roddy 17 9 5 0
Luke Kennard 15 8 0 3
Xavier Tillman S 26 8 7 0
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 20 7 4 3
Kenneth Lofton Jr. 12 7 1 1
Jake LaRavia 24 6 3 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 27 26 7 4
Damian Lillard S 27 19 4 2
MarJon Beauchamp 18 18 1 2
Brook Lopez S 19 11 5 0
AJ Green 12 9 3 2
Malik Beasley S 25 9 1 3
Jae Crowder 25 8 10 4
Thanasis Antetokounmpo 14 6 1 1
Khris Middleton S 12 5 1 5
TyTy Washington Jr. 14 5 3 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 18-foot jumper (Khris Middleton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
13%
2 Desmond Bane MEM
13%
3 Santi Aldama MEM
10%
4 Derrick Rose MEM
10%
5 Brook Lopez MIL
10%
6 Jae Crowder MIL
9%
7 Pat Connaughton MIL
9%
8 Robin Lopez MIL
9%
9 David Roddy MEM
9%
10 Malik Beasley MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
28%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Desmond Bane MEM 23.1 4.9 4.5
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 15.8 6.2 1.9
3 Santi Aldama MEM 12.4 5.7 1.7
4 Malik Beasley MIL 11.1 3.3 2.1
5 David Roddy MEM 10.9 4.5 2.3
6 Ziaire Williams MEM 10.1 3.4 1.7
7 Pat Connaughton MIL 10.1 5.4 2.5
8 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 9.8 5.8 2.4
9 Kenneth Lofton Jr. MEM 9.7 3.7 1.9
10 Jae Crowder MIL 9.0 3.6 1.4
11 Brook Lopez MIL 8.5 3.1 1.0
12 Bobby Portis MIL 7.8 6.2 1.7
13 Xavier Tillman MEM 7.0 5.5 1.5
14 GG Jackson MEM 6.9 1.9 0.6
15 Derrick Rose MEM 6.8 1.7 4.1
16 Cameron Payne MIL 6.7 2.0 4.7
17 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 6.6 4.0 1.9
18 TyTy Washington Jr. MIL 6.6 2.2 2.3
19 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 6.2 3.5 0.7
20 Jacob Gilyard MEM 5.7 2.3 4.9
21 Luke Kennard MEM 5.4 2.0 1.3
22 Chris Livingston MIL 4.8 1.8 0.7
23 Robin Lopez MIL 4.7 2.5 1.5
24 Lindell Wigginton MIL 4.5 2.9 2.7
25 Marques Bolden MIL 2.9 3.7 0.7
26 Shaquille Harrison MEM 2.5 2.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.