NBA games

MIA @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
104–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA31211933104
HOU30361529110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 4 (HOU) / 4 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home HOU
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
R.J. Hampton 25 17 3 5
Tyler Herro S 16 13 1 4
Bam Adebayo S 16 11 3 2
Justin Champagnie 19 11 4 0
Nikola Jovic 26 10 2 1
Cole Swider 12 8 3 0
Thomas Bryant 16 8 4 0
Orlando Robinson 16 7 5 1
Kyle Lowry S 16 6 1 1
Caleb Martin S 13 4 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 28 20 4 1
Fred VanVleet S 29 20 3 6
Amen Thompson 25 19 7 4
Alperen Sengun S 27 16 12 3
Jock Landale 21 8 2 2
Jeff Green 16 7 4 2
Dillon Brooks S 27 7 2 0
Jabari Smith Jr. S 27 7 8 2
Nate Williams 5 4 2 0
Cam Whitmore 9 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Fred VanVleet · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"Fred VanVleet makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
16%
2 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
11%
3 Alperen Sengun HOU
10%
4 Fred VanVleet HOU
10%
5 Cam Whitmore HOU
10%
6 Jae'Sean Tate HOU
8%
7 Duncan Robinson MIA
8%
8 Amen Thompson HOU
8%
9 Jamal Cain MIA
7%
10 Haywood Highsmith MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
32%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
38%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Bam Adebayo MIA 19.5 7.2 2.7
2 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 15.9 7.1 1.8
3 Cam Whitmore HOU 12.6 3.9 1.3
4 Amen Thompson HOU 10.8 3.8 3.0
5 Dru Smith MIA 10.6 3.4 5.0
6 Duncan Robinson MIA 10.4 3.0 2.9
7 Cole Swider MIA 10.4 2.3 1.8
8 Fred VanVleet HOU 10.4 2.1 3.0
9 Jamal Cain MIA 10.3 7.6 1.2
10 Alperen Sengun HOU 9.9 5.9 3.4
11 Haywood Highsmith MIA 8.9 2.5 1.6
12 Thomas Bryant MIA 8.5 5.0 1.2
13 Nate Williams HOU 8.3 3.2 0.8
14 Orlando Robinson MIA 7.6 4.0 1.3
15 Justin Champagnie MIA 7.5 6.4 1.7
16 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 6.7 3.6 1.4
17 Aaron Holiday HOU 6.2 3.4 2.9
18 Dillon Brooks HOU 5.8 1.5 1.6
19 Jermaine Samuels Jr. HOU 4.5 2.3 1.3
20 Trevor Hudgins HOU 4.1 1.1 1.9
21 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl HOU 3.8 2.9 1.6
22 Nate Hinton HOU 3.4 2.2 0.7
23 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 3.0 1.1 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.