NBA games

DET @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
104–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET27251834104
DAL40193223114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 3 (DAL) / 3 (DET) games this season
DET away
home DAL
18% 82%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Malcolm Cazalon 19 16 2 4
Jared Rhoden 24 13 4 3
Isaiah Stewart S 20 9 4 3
Ausar Thompson S 25 9 11 0
Cade Cunningham S 23 7 5 4
Jaden Ivey S 19 7 4 4
Marcus Sasser 9 7 3 0
Buddy Boeheim 7 6 0 0
Jalen Duren S 16 6 3 1
Marvin Bagley III 13 6 7 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Josh Green S 24 22 3 0
Kyrie Irving S 27 17 8 11
Dereck Lively II S 24 14 5 2
Tim Hardaway Jr. 21 12 4 4
Derrick Jones Jr. S 15 8 1 1
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 14 7 5 0
Seth Curry 14 6 2 1
Grant Williams S 25 5 5 2
Dwight Powell 14 5 6 3
Maxi Kleber 15 5 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Josh Green · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:02 Q1
"Josh Green makes 18-foot pullup jump shot (Dereck Lively II assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic DAL
17%
2 Isaiah Stewart DET
15%
3 Dereck Lively II DAL
15%
4 Ausar Thompson DET
14%
5 Grant Williams DAL
13%
6 Killian Hayes DET
13%
7 Dante Exum DAL
12%
8 Jaden Ivey DET
0%
9 Stanley Umude DET
0%
10 Marcus Sasser DET
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
53%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
22%
Layup
8%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 18.4 4.8 2.9
2 Ausar Thompson DET 15.2 9.2 3.6
3 Jaden Ivey DET 15.0 5.1 3.9
4 Jaden Hardy DAL 14.7 3.7 2.6
5 Marvin Bagley III DET 13.1 6.3 1.5
6 Killian Hayes DET 12.7 2.9 4.0
7 Marcus Sasser DET 12.0 3.7 4.9
8 Isaiah Stewart DET 11.5 5.7 1.5
9 Stanley Umude DET 9.3 3.6 1.6
10 James Wiseman DET 8.3 6.2 1.2
11 Dante Exum DAL 7.6 2.3 4.6
12 Alec Burks DET 6.5 2.6 1.5
13 Josh Green DAL 6.2 2.4 1.5
14 Grant Williams DAL 6.0 4.1 2.0
15 Joe Harris DET 5.8 1.8 1.1
16 Dwight Powell DAL 4.6 2.1 0.4
17 Dereck Lively II DAL 4.1 4.6 0.6
18 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.9 2.1 0.3
19 Jordan Walker DAL 3.8 0.7 1.2
20 A.J. Lawson DAL 3.5 2.8 0.3
21 Dexter Dennis DAL 3.2 1.3 0.4
22 Maxi Kleber DAL 2.1 2.1 0.2
23 Richaun Holmes DAL 1.7 2.1 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.