NBA games

WSH @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
98134
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH2428222498
TOR31274333134

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 3 (TOR) / 3 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home TOR
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 20 18 7 0
Eugene Omoruyi 12 16 3 1
Danilo Gallinari 14 11 3 1
Tyus Jones S 24 11 3 3
Delon Wright 15 9 1 2
Corey Kispert 19 9 4 2
Jordan Poole S 20 7 2 4
Jared Butler 12 6 3 3
Daniel Gafford S 18 6 4 1
Ryan Rollins 23 3 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 25 23 6 1
Pascal Siakam S 26 19 8 3
OG Anunoby S 23 15 4 4
Malachi Flynn 20 13 5 3
Gradey Dick 19 12 2 1
Precious Achiuwa 17 9 6 3
Javon Freeman-Liberty 11 9 4 2
Jakob Poeltl S 19 8 9 2
Dennis Schroder S 23 7 3 11
Jalen McDaniels 17 6 5 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Daniel Gafford · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Daniel Gafford makes alley oop dunk shot (Tyus Jones assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jordan Poole WSH
19%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
12%
3 Pascal Siakam TOR
12%
4 Daniel Gafford WSH
11%
5 Chris Boucher TOR
10%
6 Dennis Schroder TOR
9%
7 OG Anunoby TOR
9%
8 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
8%
9 Tyus Jones WSH
8%
10 Danilo Gallinari WSH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
44%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Scottie Barnes TOR 20.7 6.7 3.8
2 Jordan Poole WSH 17.8 3.8 3.0
3 Pascal Siakam TOR 15.8 5.7 3.4
4 OG Anunoby TOR 9.8 2.0 2.1
5 Dennis Schroder TOR 9.3 3.6 3.6
6 Tyus Jones WSH 9.1 4.5 4.0
7 Jalen McDaniels TOR 8.4 4.0 1.1
8 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 8.3 4.7 1.7
9 Daniel Gafford WSH 8.2 6.0 0.7
10 Chris Boucher TOR 8.2 5.7 0.8
11 Corey Kispert WSH 7.9 2.1 1.7
12 Danilo Gallinari WSH 7.5 3.0 1.5
13 Ryan Rollins WSH 7.4 2.8 1.2
14 Malachi Flynn TOR 7.0 4.6 3.5
15 Gradey Dick TOR 6.0 2.4 1.2
16 Thaddeus Young TOR 5.7 3.5 1.2
17 Delon Wright WSH 5.4 2.8 3.4
18 Javon Freeman-Liberty TOR 5.2 2.7 0.9
19 Mouhamadou Gueye TOR 4.5 3.6 0.9
20 Jared Butler WSH 3.7 2.3 1.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.