NBA games

ATL @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
106–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL25363015106
PHI24253833120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 3 (PHI) / 4 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home PHI
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 27 19 2 10
Onyeka Okongwu S 21 14 7 2
Saddiq Bey S 24 13 4 1
Dejounte Murray S 26 12 3 4
Clint Capela S 19 9 6 1
Jalen Johnson S 17 9 4 1
Bogdan Bogdanovic S 20 9 4 3
De'Andre Hunter S 23 6 8 4
AJ Griffin 19 5 0 0
Trent Forrest 8 4 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Anthony Melton S 25 29 5 2
Joel Embiid S 33 21 5 1
Tyrese Maxey S 32 15 2 12
Tobias Harris S 25 11 5 5
Kelly Oubre Jr. 24 11 2 1
Furkan Korkmaz 20 8 2 2
Paul Reed 18 6 8 2
Jaden Springer 13 6 2 1
Patrick Beverley 7 5 1 0
Danny Green 6 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
De'Anthony Melton · Layup (2 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"De'Anthony Melton makes two point shot (Tobias Harris assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paul Reed PHI
12%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
12%
3 Trae Young ATL
11%
4 Tobias Harris PHI
11%
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
10%
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
10%
7 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL
9%
8 Jalen Johnson ATL
8%
9 Dejounte Murray ATL
8%
10 Kobe Bufkin ATL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
27%
Free Throw
36%
Jumper
14%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 18.3 2.4 4.8
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 17.6 3.3 4.3
3 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 15.3 4.5 2.3
4 Tobias Harris PHI 14.4 7.4 2.2
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 13.8 5.2 1.5
6 Jaden Springer PHI 11.1 4.7 1.9
7 Paul Reed PHI 10.4 6.1 2.0
8 Jalen Johnson ATL 8.8 3.7 3.4
9 Kobe Bufkin ATL 8.5 3.2 1.7
10 Dejounte Murray ATL 8.1 3.4 2.3
11 AJ Griffin ATL 7.9 2.5 1.3
12 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 7.8 3.6 3.0
13 Bruno Fernando ATL 7.3 4.8 1.7
14 Patrick Beverley PHI 7.3 2.2 1.9
15 Garrison Mathews ATL 6.3 1.6 0.7
16 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 5.9 2.7 1.2
17 Trent Forrest ATL 5.9 2.0 2.8
18 Danny Green PHI 5.5 1.4 1.4
19 Javonte Smart PHI 4.4 1.1 1.5
20 Seth Lundy ATL 4.1 1.4 0.4
21 Mo Bamba PHI 3.5 2.8 0.7
22 Ricky Council IV PHI 3.3 1.6 0.6
23 David Duke Jr. PHI 3.1 1.0 0.8
24 Wesley Matthews ATL 2.8 2.5 0.7
25 Miles Norris ATL 2.0 1.3 0.6
26 Patty Mills ATL 2.0 0.8 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.