NBA games

FLMG @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
76109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
FLMG1422202076
ORL30352024109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 3 (ORL) / 0 (FLMG) games this season
FLMG away
home ORL
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gui Deodato S 29 16 4 1
Scott Machado 29 13 4 6
Gabriel Jau S 20 9 6 1
Felipe Motta 12 8 1 0
Martin Cuello 24 7 1 2
Maique Tavares 26 7 3 1
Olivinha Rodriguez 24 6 9 1
Didi Louzada S 30 5 3 0
Franco Balbi S 17 5 2 3
Marko Filipovity S 20 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trevelin Queen 24 24 1 0
Jett Howard S 28 21 3 2
Caleb Houstan S 24 15 6 1
Brandon Williams 22 13 2 2
Goga Bitadze S 22 11 5 4
Mac McClung 20 11 3 1
Anthony Black S 26 7 5 5
Daeqwon Plowden 23 3 2 2
Chuma Okeke S 25 2 3 3
Admiral Schofield 26 2 9 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Caleb Houstan · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:02 Q1
"Caleb Houstan makes 27-foot three point jumper (Goga Bitadze assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
22%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
21%
3 Markelle Fultz ORL
21%
4 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
18%
5 Jalen Suggs ORL
18%
6 Chuma Okeke ORL
0%
7 Goga Bitadze ORL
0%
8 Anthony Black ORL
0%
9 Jett Howard ORL
0%
10 Trevelin Queen ORL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
30%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
14%
Layup
44%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Franz Wagner ORL 14.3 3.6 2.5
2 Moritz Wagner ORL 10.2 2.7 1.1
3 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 9.6 5.3 2.7
4 Markelle Fultz ORL 9.5 3.6 4.2
5 Cole Anthony ORL 8.8 3.2 3.7
6 Paolo Banchero ORL 7.9 4.0 2.7
7 Jalen Suggs ORL 7.4 3.5 1.5
8 Jett Howard ORL 5.1 1.3 0.7
9 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.8 3.3 0.8
10 Trevelin Queen ORL 4.5 1.6 2.1
11 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.8 2.2 0.5
12 Anthony Black ORL 3.5 2.4 0.8
13 Chuma Okeke ORL 3.3 2.0 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.