Friday, October 20, 2023

CLE @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final

104–109

Final

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
CLE	26	25	29	24	104
IND	26	30	27	26	109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Last 3 (IND) / 3 (CLE) games this season

CLE away

home IND

56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Donovan Mitchell S	28	28	3	4	11/21	3/7	-11
Evan Mobley S	29	18	8	2	8/14	0/0	-4
Caris LeVert S	28	12	0	2	5/15	1/7	9
Georges Niang	25	11	4	2	4/8	3/5	-4
Ty Jerome	14	8	2	5	2/6	0/1	5
Isaac Okoro	21	7	3	3	3/8	1/3	-2
Max Strus S	27	7	3	2	2/8	1/5	-14
Sam Merrill	5	4	1	0	1/3	1/3	1
Emoni Bates	12	4	1	1	1/3	1/2	-2
Isaiah Mobley	7	3	4	2	1/3	0/1	-2

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Buddy Hield	18	20	4	1	6/10	6/8	-14
Obi Toppin S	26	17	9	1	6/9	1/3	7
Tyrese Haliburton S	28	14	4	9	5/11	0/5	13
Andrew Nembhard	23	13	1	2	5/10	1/2	-9
Bruce Brown S	23	9	5	1	3/6	3/6	20
Bennedict Mathurin S	23	9	2	2	2/4	2/3	8
T.J. McConnell	12	9	2	3	3/8	0/1	-10
Myles Turner S	23	8	9	2	3/9	0/3	20
Jarace Walker	9	5	5	1	2/3	0/0	5
Ben Sheppard	9	3	1	1	1/3	0/1	5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80

Trained on 67736 player-games

Actual

Obi Toppin · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1

"Obi Toppin makes 2-foot alley oop dunk shot (Bruce Brown assists)"

Most likely first scorer (top 10)

1 Bennedict Mathurin IND

19%

2 Damian Jones CLE

15%

3 Ty Jerome CLE

15%

4 Obi Toppin IND

15%

5 Isaac Okoro CLE

13%

6 Bruce Brown IND

11%

7 Dean Wade CLE

10%

8 Emoni Bates CLE

9 Jarace Walker IND

10 Georges Niang CLE

Method (given top scorer)

3PT

16%

Dunk

22%

Free Throw

19%

Jumper

25%

Layup

19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)

#	Player	Team	Pred PTS	Pred REB	Pred AST	Actual PTS	Actual REB	Actual AST
1	Bennedict Mathurin	IND	13.4	5.2	2.2	9	2	2
2	Aaron Nesmith	IND	11.7	2.0	1.0	0	2	1
3	Isaac Okoro	CLE	10.5	3.7	3.1	7	3	3
4	Ben Sheppard	IND	10.4	3.6	2.3	3	1	1
5	Jarace Walker	IND	10.0	5.0	2.1	5	5	1
6	Ty Jerome	CLE	9.5	3.3	4.4	8	2	5
7	Emoni Bates	CLE	9.4	3.2	1.0	4	1	1
8	Dean Wade	CLE	9.2	5.1	1.2	0	3	1
9	T.J. McConnell	IND	8.6	2.7	5.5	9	2	3
10	Jalen Smith	IND	8.5	6.4	0.7	2	4	0
11	Buddy Hield	IND	7.8	2.9	4.3	20	4	1
12	Craig Porter Jr.	CLE	6.4	1.7	2.5	2	1	0
13	Obi Toppin	IND	6.3	4.1	0.8	17	9	1
14	Bruce Brown	IND	6.1	2.2	2.6	9	5	1
15	Georges Niang	CLE	5.7	2.4	1.1	11	4	2
16	Damian Jones	CLE	5.7	3.7	0.5	0	3	0
17	Isaiah Mobley	CLE	4.4	2.7	0.7	3	4	2
18	Jordan Nwora	IND	4.3	1.4	0.4	0	1	2
19	Isaiah Jackson	IND	4.0	3.1	0.7	0	5	0
20	Sam Merrill	CLE	3.3	1.3	1.0	4	1	0
21	Tristan Thompson	CLE	2.8	3.4	1.2	0	1	0
22	Zhaire Smith	CLE	2.2	1.5	0.5	—	—	—
23	Isaiah Wong	IND	2.1	0.8	0.9	—	—	—

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.