NBA games

UTAH @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
113–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH26233628113
SAC27272537116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 4 (SAC) / 4 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home SAC
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Talen Horton-Tucker S 31 26 5 8
Collin Sexton S 25 24 5 5
Walker Kessler S 32 14 15 3
Kris Dunn 23 12 5 5
Simone Fontecchio S 27 11 5 2
Ochai Agbaji S 33 8 5 1
Keyonte George 26 7 1 2
Taylor Hendricks 15 5 3 0
Omer Yurtseven 16 3 6 0
Luka Samanic 12 3 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Malik Monk 29 23 2 8
Colby Jones 24 19 3 2
Kessler Edwards 24 14 8 0
Sasha Vezenkov S 21 13 6 0
JaVale McGee S 21 12 7 2
Davion Mitchell S 32 12 3 7
Kevin Huerter S 23 8 5 3
Alex Len 26 7 7 1
Harrison Barnes S 21 6 5 2
Keon Ellis 17 2 3 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Sasha Vezenkov · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:15 Q1
"Sasha Vezenkov makes 27-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Harrison Barnes SAC
26%
2 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH
26%
3 Walker Kessler UTAH
24%
4 Kevin Huerter SAC
21%
5 Simone Fontecchio UTAH
0%
6 Luka Samanic UTAH
0%
7 Taylor Hendricks UTAH
0%
8 Omer Yurtseven UTAH
0%
9 Keyonte George UTAH
0%
10 Collin Sexton UTAH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
42%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
21%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 11.4 4.1 3.5
2 Keyonte George UTAH 11.4 2.4 3.9
3 Harrison Barnes SAC 9.5 2.6 1.5
4 Collin Sexton UTAH 8.1 1.8 2.9
5 Malik Monk SAC 7.7 2.5 3.4
6 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 7.5 2.9 1.0
7 Davion Mitchell SAC 7.5 2.1 2.6
8 JaVale McGee SAC 7.4 4.1 1.7
9 Kevin Huerter SAC 6.8 2.5 1.3
10 Colby Jones SAC 6.5 2.1 1.6
11 Kris Dunn UTAH 6.4 2.1 1.9
12 Walker Kessler UTAH 6.2 5.5 0.9
13 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 6.2 4.0 0.9
14 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 4.2 1.9 1.1
15 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 4.0 4.0 0.5
16 Alex Len SAC 3.9 2.9 1.6
17 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 3.8 2.3 0.7
18 Jordan Ford SAC 3.6 1.7 0.6
19 Luka Samanic UTAH 3.5 2.2 0.7
20 Kessler Edwards SAC 3.1 2.6 0.7
21 Jalen Slawson SAC 1.9 2.0 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.