NBA games

DEN @ LAC

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
103–90
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN24292525103
LAC2330181990

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 3 (LAC) / 4 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home LAC
65% 35%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 28 25 14 8
Aaron Gordon S 28 13 5 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 28 13 1 3
Zeke Nnaji 20 13 6 1
Justin Holiday 21 8 4 2
Jamal Murray S 29 8 4 7
Reggie Jackson 17 7 3 0
Braxton Key 16 6 1 1
Hunter Tyson S 21 5 5 1
Jalen Pickett 7 3 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bones Hyland S 24 25 7 6
Terance Mann S 25 10 3 0
Norman Powell S 28 10 2 1
Kobe Brown 21 9 2 1
KJ Martin 19 9 3 2
Robert Covington S 24 7 4 0
Mason Plumlee 18 6 7 2
Xavier Moon 24 6 5 3
Ivica Zubac S 23 5 10 2
Moussa Diabate 7 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Norman Powell · Layup (2 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Norman Powell makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
12%
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC
10%
3 Ivica Zubac LAC
10%
4 Paul George LAC
8%
5 DeAndre Jordan DEN
8%
6 Julian Strawther DEN
8%
7 Aaron Gordon DEN
8%
8 Jamal Murray DEN
8%
9 Peyton Watson DEN
8%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
20%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
22%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Julian Strawther DEN 15.7 2.6 1.7
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 14.9 6.8 3.6
3 Bones Hyland LAC 12.8 4.1 3.8
4 Jamal Murray DEN 12.4 2.6 4.7
5 Hunter Tyson DEN 10.5 4.4 1.8
6 Reggie Jackson DEN 10.2 2.3 1.8
7 Paul George LAC 10.2 4.6 2.1
8 Xavier Moon LAC 9.9 3.5 3.3
9 Peyton Watson DEN 9.6 3.6 1.8
10 Kawhi Leonard LAC 9.2 2.5 1.5
11 Zeke Nnaji DEN 7.8 4.9 1.5
12 Amir Coffey LAC 7.0 2.9 1.7
13 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 6.9 1.7 1.3
14 Collin Gillespie DEN 6.7 2.1 2.4
15 Ivica Zubac LAC 6.6 4.5 0.6
16 Kobe Brown LAC 6.6 3.8 1.2
17 KJ Martin LAC 6.5 4.5 1.2
18 Terance Mann LAC 6.3 3.7 1.3
19 Braxton Key DEN 6.2 4.0 1.7
20 Aaron Gordon DEN 5.9 4.1 1.8
21 DeAndre Jordan DEN 5.7 3.6 3.2
22 Robert Covington LAC 5.7 2.5 0.8
23 Justin Holiday DEN 5.6 1.8 1.3
24 Jalen Pickett DEN 5.5 1.9 1.6
25 Jordan Miller LAC 3.5 2.2 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.