NBA games

PHX @ LAL

NBA Acrisure Arena ·Final
123–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX24303534123
LAL20381527100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (LAL) / 4 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home LAL
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 17 21 4 2
Saben Lee 16 17 2 4
Yuta Watanabe 16 12 3 1
Nassir Little 21 11 4 1
Eric Gordon S 18 10 2 2
Chimezie Metu 9 9 0 0
Drew Eubanks 16 7 9 6
Jordan Goodwin 14 7 4 3
Grayson Allen S 27 6 4 3
Bol Bol 10 6 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 22 19 6 3
Anthony Davis S 23 15 2 0
Austin Reaves S 24 14 4 3
Max Christie 21 10 2 1
Colin Castleton 10 9 3 3
D'Angelo Russell S 22 8 3 6
Jaxson Hayes 13 7 3 0
Maxwell Lewis 12 5 0 2
Taurean Prince S 17 3 1 1
Rui Hachimura 19 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Davis · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Anthony Davis makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (D'Angelo Russell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kevin Durant PHX
11%
2 Anthony Davis LAL
10%
3 Grayson Allen PHX
10%
4 D'Angelo Russell LAL
9%
5 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
8%
6 Christian Wood LAL
8%
7 Devin Booker PHX
8%
8 Drew Eubanks PHX
7%
9 Rui Hachimura LAL
7%
10 Eric Gordon PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
28%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 17.8 3.9 3.4
2 Devin Booker PHX 17.4 2.2 3.8
3 D'Angelo Russell LAL 15.2 2.6 5.3
4 Grayson Allen PHX 15.0 3.4 4.3
5 Anthony Davis LAL 13.8 6.0 2.2
6 Rui Hachimura LAL 11.3 4.2 1.4
7 Eric Gordon PHX 10.8 2.2 1.8
8 Saben Lee PHX 10.5 3.3 3.8
9 Yuta Watanabe PHX 9.9 2.8 1.1
10 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 9.6 5.3 3.2
11 Josh Okogie PHX 9.4 4.7 2.1
12 Gabe Vincent LAL 8.8 1.2 2.2
13 Chimezie Metu PHX 8.6 4.0 1.6
14 Max Christie LAL 8.6 2.5 1.4
15 Christian Wood LAL 8.3 4.4 1.0
16 Taurean Prince LAL 7.7 2.2 0.8
17 Drew Eubanks PHX 6.4 6.1 1.5
18 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 6.4 4.1 1.3
19 Nassir Little PHX 6.1 2.8 1.5
20 Keon Johnson PHX 5.5 1.4 1.1
21 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.0 3.3 1.3
22 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 4.9 3.0 3.7
23 Maxwell Lewis LAL 4.8 0.9 1.3
24 Udoka Azubuike PHX 4.5 4.5 0.7
25 Bol Bol PHX 4.0 2.5 0.9
26 Colin Castleton LAL 3.9 5.3 0.4
27 D'Moi Hodge LAL 3.5 1.3 0.4
28 Alex Fudge LAL 2.3 1.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.