NBA games

DET @ OKC

NBA BOK Center ·Final
118–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET27223930118
OKC23313626116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 4 (OKC) / 2 (DET) games this season
DET away
home OKC
69% 31%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ausar Thompson S 22 18 8 3
Marcus Sasser 26 17 4 6
Cade Cunningham S 22 14 6 6
Jaden Ivey 23 13 4 2
Jalen Duren S 21 11 7 1
Isaiah Stewart S 22 10 4 1
Joe Harris 15 9 2 1
Marvin Bagley III 16 9 3 0
Killian Hayes S 21 8 0 2
Alec Burks 13 5 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Williams S 26 20 0 5
Josh Giddey S 25 14 7 7
Cason Wallace 26 13 3 2
Chet Holmgren S 14 10 4 1
Olivier Sarr S 25 10 6 1
Isaiah Joe 18 10 2 2
Davis Bertans 7 9 1 0
Vasilije Micic 17 8 4 6
Ousmane Dieng 22 8 3 1
Luguentz Dort S 24 5 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Josh Giddey · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Josh Giddey makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Williams OKC
24%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
24%
3 Josh Giddey OKC
21%
4 Luguentz Dort OKC
16%
5 Cason Wallace OKC
14%
6 Davis Bertans OKC
0%
7 Isaiah Joe OKC
0%
8 Olivier Sarr OKC
0%
9 Jack White OKC
0%
10 Keyontae Johnson OKC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
33%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
23%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Chet Holmgren OKC 17.9 5.8 1.8
2 Jalen Williams OKC 16.6 4.5 2.7
3 Josh Giddey OKC 12.5 5.7 4.7
4 Luguentz Dort OKC 12.2 2.7 1.2
5 Ousmane Dieng OKC 10.6 4.9 3.5
6 Tre Mann OKC 9.6 4.0 2.4
7 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.7 2.0 0.9
8 Vasilije Micic OKC 7.1 2.2 5.2
9 Aaron Wiggins OKC 7.0 2.6 0.9
10 Lindy Waters III OKC 6.9 2.7 0.8
11 Davis Bertans OKC 6.7 1.5 0.8
12 Keyontae Johnson OKC 5.6 1.8 0.8
13 Cason Wallace OKC 5.6 2.5 1.7
14 Jack White OKC 5.0 3.2 0.6
15 Olivier Sarr OKC 3.9 3.5 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.