NBA games

MIN @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
114–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN28243626114
CHI20312529105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 4 (CHI) / 4 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home CHI
68% 32%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 20 19 5 1
Naz Reid 21 14 8 3
Troy Brown Jr. 23 12 3 1
Jordan McLaughlin 13 11 1 4
Luka Garza 12 11 4 0
Rudy Gobert S 22 10 6 2
Matt Ryan 4 6 1 0
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 23 6 1 0
Kyle Anderson S 20 5 3 4
Daishen Nix 9 5 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Vucevic S 33 21 10 4
Ayo Dosunmu S 26 15 2 0
Coby White S 30 13 6 3
DeMar DeRozan S 30 11 1 4
Patrick Williams S 31 10 5 1
Julian Phillips 6 9 0 0
Alex Caruso 18 7 1 4
Torrey Craig 16 5 1 2
Onuralp Bitim 7 5 1 0
Jevon Carter 19 5 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rudy Gobert · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Rudy Gobert makes dunk (Kyle Anderson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Rudy Gobert MIN
26%
2 Luka Garza MIN
9%
3 DeMar DeRozan CHI
9%
4 Patrick Williams CHI
8%
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI
8%
6 Josh Minott MIN
7%
7 Coby White CHI
7%
8 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN
7%
9 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN
6%
10 Troy Brown Jr. MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
86%
Free Throw
1%
Jumper
2%
Layup
11%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Naz Reid MIN 16.6 4.2 1.6
2 Coby White CHI 15.0 3.4 4.2
3 DeMar DeRozan CHI 13.6 2.6 2.3
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 12.3 6.2 1.8
5 Luka Garza MIN 12.1 4.4 1.9
6 Patrick Williams CHI 10.8 3.0 1.7
7 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 9.4 3.0 3.5
8 Shake Milton MIN 8.5 2.4 3.1
9 Leonard Miller MIN 8.2 4.9 1.0
10 Josh Minott MIN 8.0 3.8 2.3
11 Jevon Carter CHI 6.8 1.8 1.7
12 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 6.6 2.9 1.0
13 Rudy Gobert MIN 6.3 6.9 0.6
14 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 6.2 2.7 1.6
15 Torrey Craig CHI 6.0 3.6 1.7
16 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 5.5 1.9 2.1
17 Daishen Nix MIN 5.5 1.9 3.5
18 Terry Taylor CHI 5.4 4.4 2.0
19 Matt Ryan MIN 5.2 2.9 2.2
20 Kyle Anderson MIN 5.0 1.8 4.1
21 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 4.4 1.2 2.0
22 Julian Phillips CHI 4.0 2.2 0.5
23 Dalen Terry CHI 3.9 2.7 1.5
24 Carlik Jones CHI 3.5 1.3 1.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.