NBA games

BOS @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
127–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS34323427127
CHA1921253499

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 3 (CHA) / 4 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home CHA
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 23 20 4 1
Derrick White S 23 15 4 2
Kristaps Porzingis S 23 14 12 0
Neemias Queta 13 12 7 0
Lamar Stevens 12 12 3 0
Jayson Tatum S 23 11 6 7
Jrue Holiday S 23 11 5 7
Dalano Banton 16 8 2 1
Svi Mykhailiuk 9 6 0 1
Sam Hauser 15 6 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 27 16 3 5
Nick Richards 21 15 4 1
Terry Rozier S 25 14 4 2
Gordon Hayward S 25 11 5 1
JT Thor 23 10 8 0
Mark Williams S 23 8 7 4
Brandon Miller 28 8 7 4
Nick Smith Jr. 11 7 5 4
Nate Mensah 4 6 0 0
Frank Ntilikina 14 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mark Williams · Layup (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Mark Williams makes layup (LaMelo Ball assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 P.J. Washington CHA
16%
2 Terry Rozier CHA
15%
3 LaMelo Ball CHA
14%
4 Mark Williams CHA
13%
5 Derrick White BOS
11%
6 Brandon Miller CHA
11%
7 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
10%
8 Jrue Holiday BOS
10%
9 Payton Pritchard BOS
0%
10 Sam Hauser BOS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
29%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Payton Pritchard BOS 17.5 2.8 4.6
2 P.J. Washington CHA 17.5 6.3 2.0
3 Terry Rozier CHA 17.0 4.3 5.1
4 LaMelo Ball CHA 16.2 4.8 4.4
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 15.9 6.0 1.4
6 Jrue Holiday BOS 10.3 4.6 2.5
7 Brandon Miller CHA 9.7 5.3 1.9
8 Derrick White BOS 9.5 4.4 2.3
9 Mark Williams CHA 9.1 7.7 0.9
10 Sam Hauser BOS 8.9 3.9 1.8
11 Nick Richards CHA 8.1 8.5 1.0
12 JT Thor CHA 8.0 3.9 1.0
13 Al Horford BOS 7.7 4.0 1.6
14 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 7.4 2.4 1.2
15 Dalano Banton BOS 6.7 2.7 1.4
16 Oshae Brissett BOS 5.8 4.1 1.1
17 Lamar Stevens BOS 4.9 4.0 0.6
18 Luke Kornet BOS 4.5 2.8 1.6
19 Frank Ntilikina CHA 4.5 1.6 2.7
20 Edmond Sumner CHA 4.4 2.6 1.6
21 RJ Hunter CHA 2.0 1.1 0.4
22 Amari Bailey CHA 1.7 0.6 0.3
23 Nate Mensah CHA 1.6 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.