NBA games

SAC @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
115–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC23333326115
GS22272740116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 3 (GS) / 3 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home GS
13% 87%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 32 25 7 3
Keegan Murray S 36 24 8 2
Davion Mitchell 17 14 0 0
Domantas Sabonis S 34 12 10 8
Kevin Huerter S 26 12 4 1
Colby Jones 15 10 0 2
Malik Monk 20 8 1 3
JaVale McGee 12 6 2 1
Harrison Barnes S 33 4 3 2
Alex Len 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 31 30 4 5
Jonathan Kuminga S 29 18 6 2
Andrew Wiggins S 31 16 1 3
Dario Saric 28 14 6 3
Chris Paul 30 13 6 9
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 25 13 10 0
Gary Payton II 17 5 4 1
Klay Thompson S 32 5 7 4
Moses Moody 7 2 0 1
Cory Joseph 9 0 3 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kevin Huerter · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Kevin Huerter makes 27-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC
13%
2 Klay Thompson GS
13%
3 Andrew Wiggins GS
13%
4 Kevon Looney GS
11%
5 Harrison Barnes SAC
11%
6 Domantas Sabonis SAC
11%
7 Brandin Podziemski GS
10%
8 Chris Duarte SAC
9%
9 Jonathan Kuminga GS
8%
10 Kevin Huerter SAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
22%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jonathan Kuminga GS 25.5 6.6 3.7
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC 15.5 10.7 5.3
3 Moses Moody GS 15.3 4.1 1.7
4 De'Aaron Fox SAC 12.8 3.9 4.6
5 Brandin Podziemski GS 11.2 6.0 5.1
6 Andrew Wiggins GS 9.7 3.2 1.0
7 Harrison Barnes SAC 8.6 1.7 1.4
8 Klay Thompson GS 8.1 3.3 1.0
9 Dario Saric GS 7.3 3.4 1.7
10 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 6.6 3.0 1.0
11 Malik Monk SAC 6.4 1.9 3.5
12 Trey Lyles SAC 6.4 2.3 0.9
13 Lester Quinones GS 6.3 2.9 1.9
14 Chris Duarte SAC 6.1 1.3 1.0
15 Davion Mitchell SAC 5.8 1.3 3.3
16 Jerome Robinson GS 5.4 2.6 1.4
17 Kevin Huerter SAC 5.3 1.2 1.1
18 Kevon Looney GS 5.3 6.9 1.5
19 Gary Payton II GS 5.2 2.5 1.0
20 Colby Jones SAC 5.1 1.6 1.5
21 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 4.4 3.5 0.8
22 Alex Len SAC 4.3 2.3 2.1
23 Jordan Ford SAC 4.2 1.6 0.7
24 Kessler Edwards SAC 2.9 2.5 0.9
25 Jalen Slawson SAC 2.6 1.9 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.