NBA games

HOU @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
103–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU13313128103
SA32282334117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 3 (SA) / 3 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home SA
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jabari Smith Jr. S 24 20 5 0
Nate Williams 23 19 8 0
Cam Whitmore S 30 17 6 2
Jae'Sean Tate S 21 13 4 2
Jock Landale 15 10 3 1
Alperen Sengun S 24 5 5 3
Amen Thompson S 21 5 4 4
Jermaine Samuels Jr. 17 4 1 1
Nate Hinton 14 3 5 1
Trevor Hudgins 10 3 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Vassell S 25 25 3 1
Victor Wembanyama S 21 15 6 1
Zach Collins S 22 11 9 5
Cedi Osman 15 10 5 0
Malaki Branham 20 9 2 3
Julian Champagnie 11 9 5 3
Tre Jones 21 9 1 3
Dominick Barlow 10 8 2 1
Jeremy Sochan S 21 6 6 4
Charles Bassey 12 5 6 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Vassell · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Devin Vassell makes 29-foot three point jumper (Zach Collins assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
27%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
27%
3 Cedi Osman SA
23%
4 Malaki Branham SA
20%
5 Cam Whitmore HOU
0%
6 Jae'Sean Tate HOU
0%
7 Jermaine Samuels Jr. HOU
0%
8 Darius Days HOU
0%
9 Aaron Holiday HOU
0%
10 Amen Thompson HOU
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
41%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
17%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.6 8.3 1.9
2 Amen Thompson HOU 11.5 4.1 2.8
3 Cam Whitmore HOU 10.7 3.7 0.9
4 Alperen Sengun HOU 10.7 6.4 3.4
5 Malaki Branham SA 9.9 3.2 1.3
6 Cedi Osman SA 9.2 4.0 2.6
7 Blake Wesley SA 7.2 2.9 3.1
8 Aaron Holiday HOU 6.5 4.2 2.8
9 Julian Champagnie SA 6.2 3.7 1.2
10 Charles Bassey SA 6.2 7.3 1.7
11 Nate Williams HOU 5.7 2.0 0.9
12 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 5.4 3.9 1.2
13 Dominick Barlow SA 5.0 2.3 1.0
14 Darius Days HOU 4.5 2.3 0.6
15 Jermaine Samuels Jr. HOU 4.1 2.9 1.4
16 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 4.0 1.5 0.7
17 Sidy Cissoko SA 2.6 1.6 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.