NBA games

WSH @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
131–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH29363036131
NY31213024106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 3 (NY) / 2 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home NY
94% 6%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 27 41 5 2
Mike Muscala 25 20 8 0
Tyus Jones S 26 13 4 7
Ryan Rollins 16 13 4 1
Corey Kispert 21 8 1 2
Bilal Coulibaly S 21 7 3 0
Danilo Gallinari 18 7 2 2
Daniel Gafford S 18 5 3 1
Delon Wright 21 5 5 2
Taj Gibson 7 5 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 29 20 10 0
RJ Barrett S 34 19 7 3
Mitchell Robinson S 24 12 11 0
Jalen Brunson S 25 12 6 5
Isaiah Hartenstein 18 9 5 2
Josh Hart 19 8 5 3
Donte DiVincenzo 24 7 2 0
Evan Fournier 14 6 0 0
Miles McBride 23 5 0 5
Quentin Grimes S 17 5 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mitchell Robinson · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Mitchell Robinson makes alley oop dunk shot (RJ Barrett assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 8)
1 Mitchell Robinson NY
25%
2 Miles McBride NY
21%
3 Quentin Grimes NY
18%
4 Donte DiVincenzo NY
18%
5 Jericho Sims NY
17%
6 Evan Fournier NY
0%
7 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
0%
8 Charlie Brown Jr. NY
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
67%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
4%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Miles McBride NY 9.6 1.7 3.6
2 Mitchell Robinson NY 8.8 6.7 0.5
3 Evan Fournier NY 8.3 2.1 0.8
4 Quentin Grimes NY 8.1 1.7 1.8
5 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 7.7 4.7 1.5
6 Donte DiVincenzo NY 7.3 2.4 1.9
7 Jericho Sims NY 3.9 4.1 1.0
8 Charlie Brown Jr. NY 1.4 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.