NBA games

BKN @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
107–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN29292128107
MIA34251827104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 3 (MIA) / 3 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home MIA
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lonnie Walker IV 25 22 4 0
Day'Ron Sharpe 21 19 11 0
Cam Thomas 27 14 0 1
Mikal Bridges S 29 11 2 3
Dorian Finney-Smith S 22 11 0 0
Spencer Dinwiddie S 28 9 5 6
Nic Claxton S 27 8 6 2
Royce O'Neale 21 8 6 3
Armoni Brooks 9 3 1 1
Ben Simmons S 23 2 8 7
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cole Swider 25 15 2 1
Haywood Highsmith S 27 15 3 1
Bam Adebayo S 16 14 6 3
Duncan Robinson S 23 12 3 4
Dru Smith 28 9 5 10
Nikola Jovic 24 9 5 2
Justin Champagnie 30 8 6 2
Thomas Bryant 16 8 4 1
Orlando Robinson 17 7 5 2
Jamal Cain S 29 7 14 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dorian Finney-Smith · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:04 Q1
"Dorian Finney-Smith makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ben Simmons assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ben Simmons BKN
25%
2 Cam Thomas BKN
23%
3 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
17%
4 Haywood Highsmith MIA
17%
5 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN
16%
6 Cole Swider MIA
0%
7 Royce O'Neale BKN
0%
8 Duncan Robinson MIA
0%
9 Jamal Cain MIA
0%
10 Jalen Wilson BKN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
57%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
15%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cam Thomas BKN 17.6 3.3 2.4
2 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 12.1 2.3 1.7
3 Trendon Watford BKN 11.1 4.6 1.6
4 Jamal Cain MIA 11.1 6.0 1.3
5 Duncan Robinson MIA 10.2 2.6 2.9
6 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN 10.1 1.9 4.1
7 Ben Simmons BKN 9.9 4.5 6.1
8 Thomas Bryant MIA 9.3 5.6 1.4
9 Cole Swider MIA 9.2 1.9 1.9
10 Royce O'Neale BKN 9.1 4.3 2.3
11 Orlando Robinson MIA 8.2 3.9 1.3
12 Haywood Highsmith MIA 7.6 2.1 1.9
13 Darius Bazley BKN 7.4 5.5 2.0
14 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 7.3 2.5 1.7
15 Noah Clowney BKN 5.8 4.2 0.8
16 Armoni Brooks BKN 5.6 2.1 1.0
17 Jalen Wilson BKN 4.5 1.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.