NBA games

MIL @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
101124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL19352324101
OKC27323728124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 3 (OKC) / 3 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home OKC
15% 85%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Malik Beasley S 20 20 4 1
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 25 18 10 2
AJ Green 13 13 1 0
Andre Jackson Jr. 20 12 2 3
Pat Connaughton S 23 6 3 5
Chris Livingston 12 6 1 0
Cameron Payne 15 6 1 3
Thanasis Antetokounmpo 18 6 1 0
TyTy Washington Jr. 5 5 2 0
Damian Lillard S 25 5 2 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Josh Giddey S 24 19 7 5
Jalen Williams S 25 18 6 3
Chet Holmgren S 26 18 3 3
Isaiah Joe 15 11 2 0
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 25 10 5 5
Lindy Waters III 11 8 2 2
Olivier Sarr 13 7 7 3
Keyontae Johnson 12 7 1 0
Luguentz Dort S 22 6 2 0
Davis Bertans 7 6 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chet Holmgren · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Chet Holmgren makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot (Josh Giddey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 8)
1 Ousmane Dieng OKC
60%
2 Malik Beasley MIL
38%
3 Pat Connaughton MIL
0%
4 Robin Lopez MIL
0%
5 MarJon Beauchamp MIL
0%
6 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL
0%
7 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL
0%
8 Lindy Waters III OKC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
11%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Ousmane Dieng OKC 12.9 5.6 3.5
2 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 12.3 6.9 2.7
3 Pat Connaughton MIL 11.2 6.5 2.0
4 Malik Beasley MIL 10.3 2.9 2.1
5 Lindy Waters III OKC 6.8 2.7 0.7
6 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 6.7 4.4 0.7
7 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 6.2 5.1 1.7
8 Robin Lopez MIL 5.5 2.5 1.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.