NBA games

MRC @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
111–138
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MRC38223813111
MIN33393630138

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 3 (MIN) / 2 (MRC) games this season
MRC away
home MIN
17% 83%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dwayne Bacon S 34 26 5 7
Dakarai Tucker S 37 24 5 1
Jason Siggers 20 11 2 1
Mamadi Diakite 21 11 8 1
Bruno Caboclo S 24 10 9 1
Jonathan Mor S 24 10 5 0
Ashton Hagans S 39 9 5 9
Yonatan Atias 9 4 1 0
Julien Ducree 15 3 2 0
Nathan Missia-Dio 3 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Garza S 32 30 4 3
Josh Minott S 32 23 6 6
Leonard Miller 27 22 15 2
Daishen Nix 25 19 2 10
Troy Brown Jr. S 16 13 2 0
Matt Ryan S 28 12 7 5
Tyrese Martin 25 7 4 4
Wendell Moore Jr. S 29 7 4 4
Trevor Keels 27 5 1 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luka Garza · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Luka Garza makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 5)
1 Troy Brown Jr. MIN
20%
2 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN
20%
3 Josh Minott MIN
20%
4 Leonard Miller MIN
20%
5 Luka Garza MIN
19%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
76%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
3%
Jumper
4%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Garza MIN 16.7 4.7 1.8
2 Josh Minott MIN 14.2 3.6 2.4
3 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 14.1 4.2 1.8
4 Leonard Miller MIN 12.7 5.6 1.4
5 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 12.3 2.9 2.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.