NBA games

TOR @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
106102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR23312230106
CHI25262625102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 3 (CHI) / 2 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home CHI
85% 15%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 28 22 6 3
Pascal Siakam S 31 22 5 0
Dennis Schroder S 28 12 4 4
Gary Trent Jr. 25 11 4 4
OG Anunoby S 29 7 2 3
Gradey Dick 17 7 2 0
Thaddeus Young 11 6 1 0
Jalen McDaniels 25 6 5 2
Mouhamadou Gueye 6 5 1 0
Javon Freeman-Liberty 7 3 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 31 25 4 3
Nikola Vucevic S 28 20 10 1
DeMar DeRozan S 29 15 1 5
Coby White S 25 11 2 4
Patrick Williams S 21 10 3 2
Andre Drummond 20 8 13 3
Ayo Dosunmu 25 7 2 3
Torrey Craig 27 4 5 3
Jevon Carter 21 2 1 1
Dalen Terry 7 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Scottie Barnes · Layup (2 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Scottie Barnes makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Coby White CHI
28%
2 Andre Drummond CHI
21%
3 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
17%
4 Patrick Williams CHI
17%
5 Torrey Craig CHI
15%
6 Dalen Terry CHI
0%
7 Julian Phillips CHI
0%
8 Jevon Carter CHI
0%
9 Terry Taylor CHI
0%
10 Carlik Jones CHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
30%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Coby White CHI 13.7 3.3 4.1
2 Patrick Williams CHI 9.3 2.7 1.5
3 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 8.4 3.2 3.2
4 Andre Drummond CHI 7.1 8.8 0.9
5 Jevon Carter CHI 6.4 1.7 1.8
6 Torrey Craig CHI 5.1 3.4 1.4
7 Terry Taylor CHI 5.1 4.4 1.9
8 Dalen Terry CHI 4.1 3.0 1.5
9 Julian Phillips CHI 3.9 2.6 0.6
10 Carlik Jones CHI 3.0 1.5 1.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.