NBA games

NY @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
110–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY30302822110
BOS41372223123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 3 (BOS) / 2 (NY) games this season
NY away
home BOS
9% 91%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Quentin Grimes S 26 22 2 3
Miles McBride S 33 16 2 6
Donte DiVincenzo S 25 15 3 3
Isaiah Hartenstein 23 13 8 2
Mitchell Robinson S 21 12 7 1
Isaiah Roby 16 11 3 1
Evan Fournier 22 10 2 1
DaQuan Jeffries 22 8 1 3
Jericho Sims S 32 2 10 3
Nathan Knight 4 1 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 30 28 8 4
Kristaps Porzingis S 28 20 8 0
Jaylen Brown S 30 17 3 6
Sam Hauser 22 15 2 2
Payton Pritchard 22 11 1 4
Jrue Holiday S 29 10 7 4
Derrick White S 24 9 5 1
Al Horford 23 8 3 3
Oshae Brissett 8 2 4 0
Luke Kornet 12 2 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kristaps Porzingis · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Kristaps Porzingis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 6)
1 Sam Hauser BOS
97%
2 Payton Pritchard BOS
1%
3 Oshae Brissett BOS
1%
4 Luke Kornet BOS
1%
5 Lamar Stevens BOS
1%
6 Dalano Banton BOS
1%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
43%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
35%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Payton Pritchard BOS 21.7 3.3 4.7
2 Dalano Banton BOS 8.2 3.0 1.2
3 Sam Hauser BOS 7.3 4.4 1.5
4 Oshae Brissett BOS 6.3 4.2 1.4
5 Lamar Stevens BOS 5.5 4.3 0.7
6 Luke Kornet BOS 4.5 2.2 1.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.