NBA games

NO @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
10492
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO25282427104
ORL2629211692

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 2 (ORL) / 3 (NO) games this season
NO away
home ORL
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 24 18 4 6
Zion Williamson S 16 16 3 3
CJ McCollum S 23 11 5 5
Jonas Valanciunas S 21 10 6 0
Trey Jemison III 16 10 9 1
Jalen Crutcher 10 8 1 3
Herbert Jones S 24 7 3 1
Kira Lewis Jr. 17 7 2 3
Malcolm Hill 9 5 1 0
E.J. Liddell 18 4 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 19 19 5 2
Moritz Wagner 16 16 2 1
Gary Harris 18 10 2 2
Jalen Suggs S 19 9 2 0
Goga Bitadze 12 9 4 2
Cole Anthony 16 6 3 4
Paolo Banchero S 20 5 2 2
Markelle Fultz S 20 4 3 6
Wendell Carter Jr. S 20 4 6 5
Caleb Houstan 12 3 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Wendell Carter Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Wendell Carter Jr. makes 23-foot three point shot (Franz Wagner assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brandon Ingram NO
24%
2 Zion Williamson NO
23%
3 Herbert Jones NO
17%
4 Jonas Valanciunas NO
17%
5 CJ McCollum NO
17%
6 Jordan Hawkins NO
0%
7 Trey Jemison III NO
0%
8 E.J. Liddell NO
0%
9 Dyson Daniels NO
0%
10 Kaiser Gates NO
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
27%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 CJ McCollum NO 11.4 2.8 1.8
2 Jordan Hawkins NO 11.3 2.8 1.9
3 Dyson Daniels NO 11.3 4.7 3.0
4 Zion Williamson NO 10.6 3.8 3.7
5 Brandon Ingram NO 10.5 5.1 2.5
6 Kira Lewis Jr. NO 8.2 2.0 1.6
7 Dereon Seabron NO 6.3 2.4 1.1
8 Jonas Valanciunas NO 6.2 6.6 1.5
9 Herbert Jones NO 6.1 3.7 0.9
10 Naji Marshall NO 5.4 2.2 1.8
11 E.J. Liddell NO 4.5 3.2 1.2
12 Trey Jemison III NO 4.0 5.8 1.3
13 Kaiser Gates NO 3.6 1.0 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.