NBA games

POR @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
106–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR23312527106
PHX36402318117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 3 (PHX) / 3 (POR) games this season
POR away
home PHX
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shaedon Sharpe S 28 19 4 4
Skylar Mays 21 18 2 4
Jabari Walker S 16 13 9 0
Duop Reath S 23 13 5 3
Kevin Knox II 15 12 5 0
Kris Murray 35 12 4 3
Scoot Henderson S 30 8 0 5
Justin Minaya 25 5 5 1
Rayan Rupert 18 3 4 0
George Conditt IV 9 2 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 18 19 2 4
Kevin Durant S 15 19 3 4
Grayson Allen S 20 13 0 2
Bradley Beal S 18 11 0 2
Saben Lee 16 11 4 1
Josh Okogie 21 8 5 2
Chimezie Metu 19 7 4 2
Drew Eubanks S 23 6 7 2
Keita Bates-Diop 21 6 4 2
Nassir Little 15 5 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Grayson Allen · Layup (2 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Grayson Allen makes driving layup (Kevin Durant assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scoot Henderson POR
32%
2 Jerami Grant POR
23%
3 Moses Brown POR
23%
4 Nassir Little PHX
20%
5 Toumani Camara POR
0%
6 Duop Reath POR
0%
7 Shaedon Sharpe POR
0%
8 Kris Murray POR
0%
9 Skylar Mays POR
0%
10 Jabari Walker POR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
36%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Scoot Henderson POR 18.6 2.6 6.4
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR 13.8 4.6 2.8
3 Jerami Grant POR 12.2 2.4 1.4
4 Saben Lee PHX 10.2 2.9 4.3
5 Jabari Walker POR 8.1 5.7 1.2
6 Toumani Camara POR 7.8 3.3 1.6
7 Chimezie Metu PHX 7.8 4.0 1.1
8 Duop Reath POR 5.8 3.4 0.8
9 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 5.7 4.0 0.8
10 Nassir Little PHX 5.7 2.7 1.4
11 Moses Brown POR 5.3 4.5 0.6
12 Skylar Mays POR 5.3 1.2 3.2
13 Keon Johnson PHX 5.1 1.1 0.8
14 Kris Murray POR 4.8 3.2 1.0
15 Bol Bol PHX 3.6 2.2 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.