NBA games

ATL @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
112–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL31153531112
IND30432122116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 2 (IND) / 3 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home IND
19% 81%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Saddiq Bey 20 21 10 0
De'Andre Hunter S 20 16 3 0
AJ Griffin 20 15 2 2
Onyeka Okongwu S 26 11 6 1
Bogdan Bogdanovic S 22 9 5 3
Kobe Bufkin S 22 8 6 3
Bruno Fernando 22 8 3 3
Trent Forrest 24 8 3 4
Garrison Mathews 8 6 0 1
Jalen Johnson S 25 4 3 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Aaron Nesmith 16 15 1 1
Tyrese Haliburton S 23 15 3 8
Myles Turner S 16 13 4 0
Buddy Hield 21 11 3 5
Jalen Smith 20 9 7 0
Bennedict Mathurin S 22 9 4 4
Ben Sheppard 22 9 4 1
Bruce Brown S 23 8 1 4
Obi Toppin S 18 7 3 1
T.J. McConnell 20 7 3 9

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
De'Andre Hunter · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"De'Andre Hunter makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trae Young ATL
38%
2 Bruno Fernando ATL
31%
3 Dejounte Murray ATL
29%
4 AJ Griffin ATL
0%
5 Garrison Mathews ATL
0%
6 Patty Mills ATL
0%
7 Trent Forrest ATL
0%
8 Miles Norris ATL
0%
9 Jalen Johnson ATL
0%
10 Mouhamed Gueye ATL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
42%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
32%
Layup
9%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 18.9 2.6 5.0
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 10.7 4.7 4.4
3 Kobe Bufkin ATL 8.9 2.9 1.8
4 Dejounte Murray ATL 8.7 3.8 2.5
5 Bruno Fernando ATL 8.2 5.9 1.6
6 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 8.1 3.5 1.7
7 Garrison Mathews ATL 7.6 2.4 0.9
8 AJ Griffin ATL 6.8 2.9 1.2
9 Trent Forrest ATL 6.4 2.6 2.7
10 Seth Lundy ATL 6.0 2.5 0.7
11 Miles Norris ATL 3.3 2.0 0.9
12 Patty Mills ATL 3.2 1.2 1.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.