NBA games

MIL @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
10897
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL28283022108
LAL2924261897

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 4 (LAL) / 2 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home LAL
80% 20%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 15 16 8 1
Damian Lillard S 22 14 2 3
Cameron Payne 26 12 3 7
Pat Connaughton 24 12 8 2
Brook Lopez S 22 11 4 3
Bobby Portis 21 10 8 3
Malik Beasley S 24 8 5 2
MarJon Beauchamp 15 8 4 1
Thanasis Antetokounmpo 12 5 2 0
Andre Jackson Jr. 9 5 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 19 16 7 5
D'Angelo Russell S 20 11 0 1
Cam Reddish 21 10 5 0
Max Christie 26 10 4 0
Scotty Pippen Jr. 25 9 4 6
D'Moi Hodge 12 8 1 0
Taurean Prince S 15 8 2 0
Rui Hachimura S 17 8 2 3
Jaxson Hayes 17 7 6 4
Colin Castleton 12 4 5 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Taurean Prince · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Taurean Prince makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Rui Hachimura assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 D'Angelo Russell LAL
33%
2 Anthony Davis LAL
30%
3 Taurean Prince LAL
19%
4 Gabe Vincent LAL
17%
5 Christian Wood LAL
0%
6 Rui Hachimura LAL
0%
7 Maxwell Lewis LAL
0%
8 Alex Fudge LAL
0%
9 Jaxson Hayes LAL
0%
10 Colin Castleton LAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
56%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
11%
Layup
9%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 D'Angelo Russell LAL 17.6 3.2 6.3
2 Anthony Davis LAL 12.7 6.2 1.7
3 Rui Hachimura LAL 12.5 5.2 1.6
4 Taurean Prince LAL 9.4 2.9 1.3
5 Christian Wood LAL 9.3 5.1 1.0
6 Max Christie LAL 9.0 3.1 1.7
7 Gabe Vincent LAL 8.8 1.6 2.5
8 Maxwell Lewis LAL 6.2 1.6 1.6
9 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.1 3.6 1.4
10 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 5.9 3.8 3.8
11 Colin Castleton LAL 5.2 6.2 0.6
12 D'Moi Hodge LAL 4.5 2.0 0.7
13 Alex Fudge LAL 3.8 2.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.