NBA games

MEM @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
124–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM31373323124
MIA27314034132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 2 (MIA) / 3 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home MIA
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 25 26 4 3
Ziaire Williams 21 19 3 2
Santi Aldama S 24 15 2 0
Kenneth Lofton Jr. 22 15 4 1
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 25 14 6 1
David Roddy S 27 13 5 3
Xavier Tillman 18 9 6 2
Jacob Gilyard 14 6 0 5
Derrick Rose S 22 5 1 5
Luke Kennard 19 2 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 31 30 3 6
Bam Adebayo S 25 26 6 3
Jamal Cain 25 14 7 1
Thomas Bryant 17 13 4 0
Duncan Robinson 26 12 3 2
Kevin Love S 23 10 7 2
Haywood Highsmith S 26 8 3 2
Justin Champagnie 9 6 1 2
Kyle Lowry S 25 5 4 9
Cole Swider 22 5 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Desmond Bane · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Desmond Bane makes 25-foot three pointer (Derrick Rose assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 6)
1 Santi Aldama MEM
29%
2 David Roddy MEM
25%
3 Ziaire Williams MEM
23%
4 Jacob Gilyard MEM
23%
5 Kenneth Lofton Jr. MEM
0%
6 GG Jackson MEM
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
29%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
21%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Santi Aldama MEM 12.9 6.9 2.2
2 David Roddy MEM 10.8 4.8 2.0
3 Kenneth Lofton Jr. MEM 9.8 4.1 2.3
4 Ziaire Williams MEM 9.4 3.4 1.7
5 GG Jackson MEM 8.1 2.1 0.8
6 Jacob Gilyard MEM 6.9 3.3 5.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.