NBA games

GS @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
129–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS32313729129
LAL37333025125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 3 (LAL) / 1 (GS) games this season
GS away
home LAL
89% 11%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jonathan Kuminga 27 26 3 3
Stephen Curry S 21 18 3 4
Moses Moody 22 15 3 1
Brandin Podziemski 26 10 6 10
Gary Payton II 18 10 3 0
Andrew Wiggins S 19 9 3 0
Dario Saric 18 9 5 3
Trayce Jackson-Davis 11 8 4 1
Klay Thompson S 23 8 3 2
Chris Paul S 20 6 1 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Taurean Prince S 20 17 1 1
Austin Reaves S 24 16 3 3
Christian Wood 13 13 7 1
Anthony Davis S 22 13 6 4
LeBron James S 18 12 2 5
D'Angelo Russell S 26 12 4 6
Colin Castleton 12 8 7 0
Rui Hachimura 19 8 3 1
D'Moi Hodge 12 8 1 0
Max Christie 19 6 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Austin Reaves · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Austin Reaves makes 27-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Rui Hachimura LAL
25%
2 D'Angelo Russell LAL
21%
3 Jaxson Hayes LAL
20%
4 Taurean Prince LAL
17%
5 Gabe Vincent LAL
16%
6 Alex Fudge LAL
0%
7 Colin Castleton LAL
0%
8 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL
0%
9 D'Moi Hodge LAL
0%
10 Christian Wood LAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
34%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
18%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 D'Angelo Russell LAL 17.8 2.8 6.2
2 Rui Hachimura LAL 14.8 6.0 1.6
3 Max Christie LAL 9.6 3.3 1.8
4 Christian Wood LAL 9.2 5.0 1.0
5 Gabe Vincent LAL 9.0 1.6 2.5
6 Taurean Prince LAL 8.4 3.0 1.0
7 Maxwell Lewis LAL 7.0 1.6 1.2
8 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 6.6 4.3 3.5
9 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.2 4.5 1.7
10 Colin Castleton LAL 4.2 6.1 0.6
11 D'Moi Hodge LAL 3.6 2.1 0.7
12 Alex Fudge LAL 3.1 1.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.