NBA games

POR @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
82–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR1819212482
SAC30353422121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home SAC
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dalano Banton S 39 17 3 7
Duop Reath 24 14 6 0
Taze Moore 30 12 8 4
Rayan Rupert S 40 11 6 5
Moses Brown S 15 9 7 0
Kris Murray S 44 9 18 0
Justin Minaya S 38 8 6 2
Ibou Badji 10 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 26 24 2 3
Domantas Sabonis S 27 18 11 9
Harrison Barnes S 31 17 5 3
Keon Ellis S 24 13 3 2
Keegan Murray S 27 12 5 1
Davion Mitchell 22 11 4 3
JaVale McGee 8 9 7 2
Colby Jones 4 8 1 1
Trey Lyles 19 5 8 3
Jalen Slawson 4 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kris Murray · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Kris Murray makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
16%
2 Anfernee Simons POR
14%
3 De'Aaron Fox SAC
13%
4 Scoot Henderson POR
13%
5 Kris Murray POR
11%
6 Harrison Barnes SAC
10%
7 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
8 Keon Ellis SAC
8%
9 Rayan Rupert POR
6%
10 Dalano Banton POR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
36%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 25.4 5.1 6.2
2 Dalano Banton POR 22.2 5.9 4.9
3 Anfernee Simons POR 21.7 3.4 6.1
4 Scoot Henderson POR 19.7 4.0 9.8
5 Domantas Sabonis SAC 18.3 12.5 7.8
6 Keegan Murray SAC 16.7 5.6 2.1
7 Harrison Barnes SAC 11.9 3.7 1.7
8 Keon Ellis SAC 10.8 4.2 2.0
9 Kris Murray POR 10.0 4.7 1.8
10 Davion Mitchell SAC 9.9 2.6 2.6
11 Shaedon Sharpe POR 9.6 3.6 1.5
12 Rayan Rupert POR 7.8 3.6 2.6
13 Trey Lyles SAC 7.2 3.6 1.5
14 Duop Reath POR 6.6 3.6 1.0
15 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.3 2.5 1.5
16 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 4.9 1.6 0.8
17 Justin Minaya POR 4.1 2.5 1.0
18 Moses Brown POR 3.9 3.2 0.6
19 Chris Duarte SAC 3.5 1.5 0.7
20 Kessler Edwards SAC 3.3 1.3 0.7
21 Alex Len SAC 2.9 2.7 1.5
22 Colby Jones SAC 2.9 1.9 0.8
23 Taze Moore POR 2.7 1.1 0.5
24 Jalen Slawson SAC 2.5 1.3 0.6
25 Mason Jones SAC 1.7 0.8 0.9
26 JaVale McGee SAC 1.6 1.2 0.3
27 Ibou Badji POR 1.2 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.