NBA games

HOU @ LAC

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
116–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU24243731116
LAC21303222105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home LAC
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Whitmore S 36 21 6 5
Amen Thompson S 40 18 11 10
Jabari Smith Jr. S 33 15 8 3
Boban Marjanovic 12 13 8 1
Jalen Green S 23 13 6 3
Nate Williams 21 13 3 0
Aaron Holiday 17 9 2 2
Jeff Green 12 7 2 0
Jock Landale S 21 5 4 2
Nate Hinton 14 2 5 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Terance Mann S 28 24 6 2
Amir Coffey S 36 18 3 2
Daniel Theis 29 16 11 2
Brandon Boston 31 15 6 3
Xavier Moon S 46 14 6 6
Kobe Brown 38 9 6 4
Mason Plumlee S 24 9 13 4
P.J. Tucker S 8 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Amen Thompson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:08 Q1
"Amen Thompson makes driving layup (Jalen Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
18%
2 Jalen Green HOU
16%
3 Amen Thompson HOU
15%
4 Jock Landale HOU
14%
5 Terance Mann LAC
13%
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
13%
7 P.J. Tucker LAC
10%
8 Norman Powell LAC
0%
9 Cam Whitmore HOU
0%
10 Jeff Green HOU
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
22%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
22%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Green HOU 22.3 6.0 5.3
2 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 15.3 5.7 2.2
3 Ivica Zubac LAC 13.5 10.6 1.7
4 Amen Thompson HOU 13.3 9.4 3.4
5 Norman Powell LAC 12.8 2.8 1.6
6 Cam Whitmore HOU 10.3 3.8 1.3
7 Terance Mann LAC 9.4 3.7 1.4
8 Amir Coffey LAC 9.3 3.2 1.4
9 Jock Landale HOU 8.5 3.9 1.6
10 Bones Hyland LAC 7.9 2.7 2.9
11 Jeff Green HOU 6.9 2.5 1.2
12 Brandon Boston LAC 6.9 2.8 1.0
13 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.7 1.7 1.3
14 Daniel Theis LAC 5.7 3.8 1.1
15 Mason Plumlee LAC 4.9 4.1 1.1
16 P.J. Tucker LAC 4.0 2.8 0.9
17 Kobe Brown LAC 3.2 1.7 0.7
18 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 3.0 1.5 0.6
19 Xavier Moon LAC 2.8 1.7 1.1
20 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.3 1.7 0.3
21 Nate Hinton HOU 2.2 1.3 0.5
22 Jermaine Samuels Jr. HOU 1.9 1.2 0.3
23 Nate Williams HOU 1.7 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.