NBA games

DET @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
95–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET2317233295
SA29343030123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home SA
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Wiseman S 40 21 17 1
Marcus Sasser S 31 17 3 7
Jared Rhoden 32 16 4 2
Jaden Ivey S 27 13 1 2
Chimezie Metu S 33 9 4 0
Evan Fournier 17 6 1 1
Malachi Flynn 20 4 1 3
Jaylen Nowell 8 4 2 0
Buddy Boeheim 12 3 2 0
Taj Gibson 8 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Sandro Mamukelashvili S 26 18 8 1
Zach Collins S 16 17 9 2
Blake Wesley S 30 17 7 5
David Duke Jr. 22 15 3 0
Devonte' Graham 19 12 1 2
Tre Jones S 25 11 6 6
Julian Champagnie S 26 11 3 6
RaiQuan Gray 23 10 5 4
Sidy Cissoko 32 7 4 5
Jamaree Bouyea 22 5 8 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
James Wiseman · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"James Wiseman makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
2 Jaden Ivey DET
9%
3 Jalen Duren DET
9%
4 James Wiseman DET
8%
5 Julian Champagnie SA
8%
6 Blake Wesley SA
7%
7 Tre Jones SA
7%
8 Malaki Branham SA
7%
9 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA
7%
10 Chimezie Metu DET
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
41%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 24.5 5.6 7.6
2 Jaden Ivey DET 17.6 3.8 5.4
3 Marcus Sasser DET 13.7 2.7 4.9
4 Malachi Flynn DET 13.1 3.1 3.6
5 Jalen Duren DET 12.9 10.1 1.8
6 Julian Champagnie SA 12.7 4.5 2.1
7 Malaki Branham SA 12.7 2.4 1.9
8 Tre Jones SA 12.5 5.5 6.4
9 Chimezie Metu DET 12.0 6.4 2.1
10 Zach Collins SA 11.9 5.9 2.9
11 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 9.3 7.3 1.8
12 James Wiseman DET 7.8 6.3 1.2
13 Devonte' Graham SA 7.5 2.2 2.6
14 Troy Brown Jr. DET 7.0 3.8 1.3
15 Evan Fournier DET 7.0 2.3 1.3
16 Jaylen Nowell DET 6.3 1.8 1.2
17 Blake Wesley SA 6.2 2.3 3.3
18 Jared Rhoden DET 5.9 3.0 0.9
19 Sidy Cissoko SA 4.2 2.1 0.7
20 Stanley Umude DET 4.1 1.8 0.4
21 David Duke Jr. SA 4.0 1.7 1.1
22 Buddy Boeheim DET 3.9 1.3 0.6
23 Taj Gibson DET 3.5 2.4 0.8
24 Jamaree Bouyea SA 2.7 1.5 1.1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.