NBA games

DAL @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
86–135
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL2219162986
OKC39432627135

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home OKC
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Williams 30 22 5 3
Olivier-Maxence Prosper S 37 15 8 1
A.J. Lawson 24 12 5 2
Alex Fudge 19 11 2 0
Jaden Hardy S 29 9 4 3
Markieff Morris 24 8 5 3
Josh Green S 31 4 3 3
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 20 3 1 3
Dwight Powell S 27 2 8 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 16 15 1 6
Aaron Wiggins 18 14 6 1
Ousmane Dieng 18 13 1 4
Chet Holmgren S 12 13 9 0
Cason Wallace 15 12 2 1
Lindy Waters III 16 12 0 2
Gordon Hayward 22 10 4 2
Kenrich Williams 21 9 7 7
Jalen Williams S 13 9 0 3
Josh Giddey S 20 8 6 8

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:48 Q1
"Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 19-foot two point shot (Josh Giddey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
14%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
14%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
13%
4 Josh Giddey OKC
13%
5 Luguentz Dort OKC
10%
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL
10%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
9%
8 Gordon Hayward OKC
9%
9 Dante Exum DAL
8%
10 Dwight Powell DAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
29%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 24.8 5.9 5.1
2 Josh Giddey OKC 20.2 8.4 6.6
3 Jalen Williams OKC 20.1 4.9 5.1
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 14.6 7.5 1.8
5 Aaron Wiggins OKC 11.8 3.5 2.4
6 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.7 3.5 2.1
7 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 8.9 2.9 1.8
8 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.8 3.0 2.1
9 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 8.2 3.5 1.5
10 Dante Exum DAL 7.1 3.3 2.7
11 Cason Wallace OKC 6.6 2.7 1.9
12 Jaylin Williams OKC 6.5 3.6 3.1
13 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.4 2.9 1.2
14 Josh Green DAL 6.3 3.0 1.3
15 Gordon Hayward OKC 5.9 1.8 1.1
16 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.1 2.2 1.0
17 Lindy Waters III OKC 4.9 1.8 0.8
18 Ousmane Dieng OKC 3.5 1.5 1.3
19 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.4 1.8 0.6
20 Markieff Morris DAL 3.0 1.4 0.6
21 Alex Fudge DAL 2.6 1.8 0.5
22 Brandon Williams DAL 2.6 1.2 0.8
23 Dwight Powell DAL 2.5 2.3 0.8
24 A.J. Lawson DAL 2.5 1.6 0.6
25 Mike Muscala OKC 2.3 1.4 0.6
26 Bismack Biyombo OKC 2.1 1.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.