NBA games

LAL @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
124–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL30402925124
NO24292431108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home NO
65% 35%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 33 30 11 3
LeBron James S 38 28 11 17
Austin Reaves S 29 20 1 2
D'Angelo Russell S 38 19 1 4
Rui Hachimura S 34 11 7 4
Taurean Prince 20 9 1 0
Spencer Dinwiddie 14 7 1 1
Jaxson Hayes 12 0 3 0
Maxwell Lewis 2 0 0 0
Max Christie 2 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 34 25 4 7
Herbert Jones S 32 18 5 1
Larry Nance Jr. 31 13 6 4
Brandon Ingram S 23 13 5 0
Zion Williamson S 34 12 8 8
Trey Murphy III 32 11 3 2
Jose Alvarado 21 10 1 1
Dyson Daniels 18 2 2 1
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 2 2 2 0
Jonas Valanciunas S 7 2 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Davis · Layup (2 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Anthony Davis makes driving layup (LeBron James assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brandon Ingram NO
13%
2 Zion Williamson NO
12%
3 Anthony Davis LAL
12%
4 Rui Hachimura LAL
10%
5 Jonas Valanciunas NO
9%
6 Austin Reaves LAL
9%
7 LeBron James LAL
8%
8 CJ McCollum NO
7%
9 Herbert Jones NO
7%
10 D'Angelo Russell LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
32%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zion Williamson NO 27.4 6.6 5.9
2 LeBron James LAL 27.2 7.6 9.3
3 CJ McCollum NO 25.4 5.3 5.6
4 Anthony Davis LAL 24.3 12.9 3.3
5 D'Angelo Russell LAL 19.4 4.1 6.5
6 Brandon Ingram NO 19.0 5.3 5.3
7 Trey Murphy III NO 18.3 6.6 3.1
8 Rui Hachimura LAL 17.4 6.9 1.9
9 Austin Reaves LAL 16.7 5.6 5.9
10 Herbert Jones NO 11.7 3.6 3.4
11 Jonas Valanciunas NO 10.7 6.6 2.2
12 Dyson Daniels NO 9.6 4.8 2.8
13 Spencer Dinwiddie LAL 9.0 3.0 1.9
14 Jose Alvarado NO 8.2 3.0 2.6
15 Taurean Prince LAL 7.9 3.1 1.4
16 Larry Nance Jr. NO 6.7 4.0 2.1
17 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.4 4.5 1.0
18 Naji Marshall NO 6.3 3.2 1.5
19 Gabe Vincent LAL 5.4 1.6 1.7
20 Jalen Crutcher NO 3.6 1.1 1.3
21 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 3.0 1.8 1.0
22 E.J. Liddell NO 2.9 1.5 0.7
23 Max Christie LAL 2.5 1.0 0.5
24 Cam Reddish LAL 2.5 1.1 0.4
25 Cody Zeller NO 2.4 2.4 0.7
26 Jordan Hawkins NO 2.3 0.9 0.5
27 Matt Ryan NO 2.1 0.8 0.5
28 Maxwell Lewis LAL 1.4 0.6 0.3
29 Colin Castleton LAL 1.4 0.6 0.3
30 Skylar Mays LAL 1.4 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.